The Fortnight's Story
This issue opens in the middle of Fed week and closes on the jobs report. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, with the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM, and the next morning BEA publishes the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays — the report that carries the PCE price index the Fed targets. Nine days later, at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6, BLS publishes the October jobs report. A client floating past Tuesday the 27th is carrying all of it.
Treasury supply wraps around the decision: 2-year notes Monday the 26th, 5-year notes Tuesday the 27th, a 2-year floating-rate sale on FOMC day, and 7-year notes Thursday the 29th at 1:00 PM ET, hours after GDP and PCE. The Employment Cost Index follows Friday the 30th. The second week then builds toward payrolls — September JOLTS on Tuesday, November 3, the final October PMIs and the September trade report around it, and jobless claims on November 5, with initial claims last at 194,000 for the week ended October 17. The Fed decision sets the tone; the jobs report is the first major October data to test it.
At a Glance
25
Sun · Oct
26
Mon
2Y Note Auction
27
Tue
Durable Goods
New Home Sales
5Y Note Auction
28
Wed · FOMC Day
2Y FRN Auction
FOMC Rate Decision
29
Thu · GDP + PCE
GDP (Advance)
Personal Income & Outlays
Jobless Claims
Metro Home Prices
7Y Note Auction
30
Fri
Employment Cost Index
31
Sat
1
Sun · Nov
2
Mon
3
Tue
Manufacturing PMI
JOLTS
4
Wed
Trade Balance
Composite PMI
Services PMI
5
Thu
Jobless Claims
6
Fri · Jobs Report
Employment Situation
7
Sat
— Three Themes To Watch —
What this calendar is really telling you
i.
The Risk Is Front-Loaded Into Fed Week
The FOMC statement lands at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, October 28, and BEA's advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays follow Thursday the 29th, with the PCE report at 8:30 AM. That is three of this issue's five high-impact releases inside about eighteen hours, and the Employment Cost Index adds a wage read Friday the 30th. For a client closing in the next 30 to 45 days, Tuesday the 27th is the practical lock-or-float decision point — floating past it means carrying the decision and the inflation data the Fed watches most closely.
ii.
The Labor Market Gets the Last Word
The second week is built around jobs. BLS publishes September JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday, November 3, jobless claims follow Thursday the 5th, and the October Employment Situation report closes the window at 8:30 AM ET Friday, November 6. Initial claims were 194,000 for the week ended October 17 and continuing claims 1.73 million for the week ended October 10. Payrolls are the first major October data after the Fed meets, so they decide whether the market's read of the October 28 statement holds — a reason not to treat the post-Fed week as the all-clear.
iii.
Four Treasury Auctions Wrapped Around the Decision
Treasury sells 2-year notes Monday the 26th, 5-year notes Tuesday the 27th, 2-year floating-rate notes Wednesday the 28th, and 7-year notes Thursday the 29th, each at 1:00 PM ET. As of October 23 the 2-year yielded 4.69%, the 5-year 4.82%, and the 7-year 4.89%. The 7-year sits closest to the life of a typical mortgage and prices the day after the Fed and hours after GDP and PCE, so soft demand there raises the odds that a rough data morning carries into the afternoon.
Release-by-Release Detail
26
Oct 2026
Monday
2-Year Note Auction
Treasury's monthly 2-year note sale, priced Monday afternoon at 1:00 PM ET. Current 2-year yield 4.69% as of October 23.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 2-year is the Treasury most tied to expectations for the Fed's next moves. Coming two days before the decision, demand here shows how the market is positioned for the meeting.
2-Yr Yield
4.69%
BC_2YEAR · Oct 23
27
Oct 2026
Tuesday
Advance Durable Goods Orders
Census's first estimate of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods — total, core capital goods, and transportation — published about three and a half weeks after the reference month. Reference month: September.
Why It Matters for Rates
Core capital goods orders are a read on business investment and feed into GDP estimates. Landing the day before the Fed and two days before GDP, a large surprise can shift expectations for both.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · September 2026
New Residential Sales
Census and HUD's monthly count of newly built single-family homes sold, with median price and months of supply, published about four weeks after the reference month. Reference month: September. In August, the median new-home price was $393,700 with 8.5 months of supply and 483,000 homes for sale.
Why It Matters for Rates
New-home sales show how buyers are responding to builder pricing and incentives at current rates. With supply at 8.5 months in August, it is the number to watch for whether builders are moving inventory — useful context for agents working new-construction buyers.
Prev · New Home Sales
684K
CENSUS_NEW_HOME_SALES · Aug 2026 (SAAR)
5-Year Note Auction
Treasury's monthly 5-year note sale, priced Tuesday afternoon at 1:00 PM ET. Current 5-year yield 4.82% as of October 23.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 5-year sits where expectations for Fed policy meet longer-term borrowing costs, close to the expected life of many mortgages. It is the last coupon sale before the FOMC statement, so demand here shows how much risk investors want to carry into the decision.
5-Yr Yield
4.82%
BC_5YEAR · Oct 23
28
FOMC Wednesday
Wednesday
2-Year Floating Rate Note Auction
Treasury's sale of 2-year floating-rate notes, whose interest resets with short-term bill rates, priced Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET — one hour before the FOMC statement.
Why It Matters for Rates
Floating-rate notes carry little duration risk, so this sale is rarely a rate mover. Its timing an hour before the Fed decision makes it a read on short-term demand rather than on mortgage-relevant yields.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · Oct 28
FOMC Meeting — Federal Funds Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the event the rest of Fed week is positioned around. Mortgage rates track longer-term yields rather than the fed funds rate itself, so the statement language and the press conference often matter more than the decision. A surprise in either raises the odds of afternoon repricing, and the next morning's GDP and PCE data either reinforce or challenge the read.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Federal Reserve · Oct 28 Statement
29
GDP + PCE Thursday
Thursday
GDP — Advance Estimate, Third Quarter
BEA's first estimate of third-quarter economic output, published about 30 days after the quarter ends, along with the GDP price index and quarterly consumer spending. Reference period: Q3 2026.
Why It Matters for Rates
GDP is the broadest read on growth, and its price index is a second inflation gauge the morning after the Fed. A growth surprise in either direction changes how the market reads the decision it just absorbed.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BEA · Q3 2026
Personal Income and Outlays — PCE Price Index
BEA's monthly report on personal income, spending, and the PCE price index — the inflation measure the Fed targets — released at 8:30 AM ET. Reference month: September. In August, the headline PCE price index stood at 131.58.
Why It Matters for Rates
Core PCE is the inflation number the Fed itself watches, and it lands the morning after the decision. A hot or cool reading tests whatever the Fed signaled Wednesday, which raises the odds of repricing on Thursday morning.
Prev · Core PCE Index
130.46
BEA_PCE_CORE · Aug 2026
Weekly Jobless Claims
The first claims print of this fortnight, covering the week ended October 24. Initial claims last ran 194,000 for the week ended October 17; continuing claims were 1.73 million as of October 10.
Why It Matters for Rates
Claims land in the same 8:30 AM slot as PCE, so they are likely to be overshadowed. A sharp move would still add a labor signal to the post-Fed read.
Last Print
194K
ICSA · Wk Oct 17
Metro Median Home Prices
NAR's quarterly report on median existing single-family home prices across metropolitan areas, released at 10:00 AM ET. Reference period: Q3 2026.
Why It Matters for Rates
Metro prices are a housing read rather than a rate mover, but they are the local numbers agents and clients will cite. They show how third-quarter rate levels showed up in prices market by market.
Awaits
Awaits Release
NAR · Q3 2026
7-Year Note Auction
Treasury's monthly 7-year note sale, priced Thursday afternoon at 1:00 PM ET. Current 7-year yield 4.89% as of October 23.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 7-year sits close to the duration of a typical mortgage, and this sale arrives with the Fed decision, GDP, and PCE all in hand. Weak demand would raise the odds that a rough data morning carries into the afternoon.
7-Yr Yield
4.89%
BC_7YEAR · Oct 23
30
Oct 2026
Friday
Employment Cost Index
BLS's quarterly measure of compensation costs — wages and salaries plus benefits — published on the last business day of the month after the quarter ends. Reference period: Q3 2026.
Why It Matters for Rates
The ECI is the Fed's preferred read on wage pressure because it holds the mix of jobs constant. Arriving the day after PCE, it shows whether labor costs support or question the inflation picture.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · Q3 2026
3
Nov 2026
Tuesday
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global's survey of purchasing managers at U.S. factories, released at 9:45 AM ET. The forecast is 56 against a prior reading of 55.9.
Why It Matters for Rates
Manufacturing is a smaller share of the economy than services, but its price and order components are an early read on goods inflation. It rarely moves rates on its own and lands fifteen minutes before JOLTS.
Prior · Manufacturing PMI
55.90
S&P Global · Prior Reading
JOLTS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover
BLS's monthly survey of job openings, hires, quits, and separations, released at 10:00 AM ET about two months after the reference month. Reference month: September.
Why It Matters for Rates
Openings and the quits rate show how tight the labor market is and how much leverage workers have on wages. It is the first high-impact labor data after the Fed and sets expectations heading into Friday's jobs report.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · September 2026
4
Nov 2026
Wednesday
International Trade in Goods and Services
The monthly report on U.S. exports, imports, and the trade balance, published about five weeks after the reference month. Reference month: September.
Why It Matters for Rates
The trade balance feeds into GDP revisions, so a large swing can change how the advance third-quarter estimate is viewed. It is rarely a rate mover on its own.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BEA · September 2026
S&P Global Composite PMI
S&P Global's combined survey of purchasing managers across U.S. manufacturing and services, released at 9:45 AM ET. The forecast is 57.6 against a prior reading of 58.4.
Why It Matters for Rates
The composite is a broad read on October activity across the economy. Above 50 indicates expansion, and a sharp change in either direction shapes expectations two days ahead of payrolls.
Prior · Composite PMI
58.40
S&P Global · Prior Reading
S&P Global Services PMI
S&P Global's survey of purchasing managers at U.S. service-sector firms, released at 9:45 AM ET. The forecast is 57.9 against a prior reading of 58.8.
Why It Matters for Rates
Services are the largest part of the economy and the stickiest source of inflation, so this survey is an early read on whether that pressure is easing heading into the jobs report.
Prior · Services PMI
58.80
S&P Global · Prior Reading
5
Nov 2026
Thursday
Weekly Jobless Claims
The second claims print of this fortnight, covering the week ended October 31. As of publication, initial claims last ran 194,000 for the week ended October 17; the October 29 print will update that.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the last labor reading before the jobs report the next morning. A sharp move would shape expectations for payrolls, though the bigger test comes Friday.
Last Print
194K
ICSA · Wk Oct 17
6
Jobs Report Friday
Friday
Employment Situation — Jobs Report
BLS's monthly report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, underemployment (U-6), average hourly earnings, and labor-force participation, released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month. Reference month: October.
Why It Matters for Rates
Payrolls and wage growth are among the most market-moving releases on the calendar, and this is the first major October data after the Fed decision. A surprise in either direction raises the odds of repricing Friday morning and decides whether the post-Fed read holds into mid-November.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · October 2026
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