The Fortnight's Story
Wednesday, August 26 is the morning this fortnight is built around. The second estimate of second-quarter GDP and Personal Income and Outlays — the PCE price index the Fed actually targets — land together at 8:30 AM, and Treasury prices a 2-year reopening and a fresh 5-year note into whatever the market makes of them that afternoon. A cool core PCE print gives the front end room to rally into those auctions; a hot one raises the odds of intraday repricing on top of an already-heavy supply day.
Then the calendar goes quiet for five sessions and comes back on labor. JOLTS opens September on Tuesday the 1st, and the August Employment Situation closes the window Friday, September 4 — the single biggest number of this issue, and the last one before the next edition. Foreign holdings data on August 31 sits between the two: the delayed read on whether overseas buyers are still absorbing Treasury paper after four auctions in three sessions. Anything floating past August 26 is floating into payroll Friday.
At a Glance
23
Sun
24
Mon
25
Tue
New Residential Sales
2Y Note Auction
26
Wed · GDP + PCE
Core PCE
GDP (2nd Est.)
2Y Reopening
5Y Auction
Durable Goods
27
Thu
Jobless Claims
7Y Note Auction
28
Fri
29
Sat
30
Sun
31
Mon
Foreign Holdings (TIC)
1
Tue · Sept
JOLTS
Construction Spending
2
Wed
3
Thu
Jobless Claims
Trade Balance
Trade in Goods
4
Fri · Jobs Report
Employment Situation
5
Sat
— Three Themes To Watch —
What this calendar is really telling you
i.
One Wednesday Carries Growth, Inflation and Supply
The second estimate of second-quarter GDP and the PCE price index arrive in the same 8:30 AM window on August 26, and by early afternoon Treasury has priced a 2-year reopening and a 5-year note into the result. There is no room to separate the growth story from the inflation story that day. For a client floating into that Wednesday, the risk isn't just PCE — it's PCE plus a GDP revision plus two auctions absorbing the reaction inside a single session.
ii.
Four Auctions in Three Sessions, None Past Seven Years
Treasury prices a 2-year on August 25, reopens that same 2-year and adds a 5-year on the 26th, then closes with a 7-year on the 27th — four maturities in three sessions, none of them longer than seven years. Front-end supply is the most policy-sensitive kind, and two of these auctions clear after the morning's inflation and growth data is already digested. Thin demand there is the fastest signal that the data moved the market more than the front end wants to absorb. Foreign holdings data on August 31 is the delayed confirmation of whether overseas buyers helped.
iii.
The Second Week Is All Labor
After the 7-year auction on August 27 there is nothing top-tier until JOLTS on September 1, and then the August Employment Situation on Friday the 4th. Two weekly claims prints, August 27 and September 3, are the only labor data in between — initial claims last ran 206,000 with continuing claims near 1.799 million. That gives the second week one direction: everything builds toward payroll Friday, which is also the last session before the Labor Day weekend and the last number before the next issue. Clients who want certainty before that holiday weekend should be having the lock conversation in the first week, not the second.
Release-by-Release Detail
25
Aug 2026
Tuesday
New Residential Sales
Census and HUD's joint report on new single-family home sales, median price, inventory, and months of supply, published about four weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July. June sales ran at 628,000 annualized with a median price of $398,300, 485,000 homes for sale, and 9.3 months of supply.
Why It Matters for Rates
New-home sales are the cleanest read on how builder rate buydowns and price cuts are actually converting, because these are transactions closing at today's financing costs rather than contracts signed months ago. Months of supply near 9 is the number to watch — durably above 6 has historically meant builders lean harder on incentives than on price.
Prev · New Home Sales
628K
CENSUS_NEW_HOME_SALES · June 2026
2-Year Note Auction
The first of four Treasury sales in this fortnight, auctioned Tuesday afternoon. Current 2-year yield 4.24% as of August 21.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 2-year tracks Fed policy expectations more directly than any other point on the curve, so where it prices is a live read on what the market thinks the Fed does next. It also sets the tone for the reopening of the same maturity the following afternoon, which prices after GDP and PCE have already landed.
2-Yr Yield
4.24%
BC_2YEAR · Aug 21
26
GDP + PCE
Wednesday
Personal Income and Outlays
Personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE price index — headline and core — the inflation gauge the Fed actually targets, released about four weeks after month-end. Reference month: July. The prior reading, for June, put the core PCE index at 130.27 and the headline index at 131.39, with services at 124.62 and goods at 119.57.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the series the Fed's 2% target is written against, and it lands the same morning as the GDP second estimate and hours before two Treasury auctions price. A cool core print gives the front end of the curve room to rally into the 2-year reopening and the 5-year; a hot one raises the odds of a rough afternoon for both. Anything floating into Wednesday is carrying the most concentrated risk of this fortnight.
Prev · Core PCE Index
130.27
BEA_PCE_CORE · June 2026
GDP (Second Estimate)
The second of three estimates of Q2 2026 GDP growth, incorporating more complete trade and inventory data than the advance estimate. Released about 60 days after quarter-end.
Why It Matters for Rates
Revisions between the advance and second estimates are usually modest, but this one shares a morning with core PCE — so the growth story and the inflation story either confirm each other or pull in opposite directions. A downward revision paired with a hot PCE print is the combination that makes the rate conversation hardest to have with a floating client.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BEA · Q2 2026
2-Year Note Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of Tuesday's 2-year note — additional size at the same coupon and maturity — priced into the afternoon after GDP and PCE. Current 2-year yield 4.24% as of August 21.
Why It Matters for Rates
Two 2-year sales in two days is a lot of front-end paper to place in one week, and this one clears with the morning's inflation and growth data already digested. Weak demand here would be a direct signal that the data moved the market more than the front end wants to absorb.
2-Yr Yield
4.24%
BC_2YEAR · Aug 21
5-Year Note Auction
The belly of the curve, auctioned the same afternoon as the 2-year reopening. Current 5-year yield 4.43% as of August 21.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 5-year sits between the policy-sensitive front end and the inflation-sensitive long end, so it responds to both the GDP revision and the PCE print. It is the most useful single gauge of whether the market read Wednesday's data as a growth story, an inflation story, or both.
5-Yr Yield
4.43%
BC_5YEAR · Aug 21
Advance Durable Goods Orders
New orders for durable goods, plus the core capital goods and transportation components, published about three and a half weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Overshadowed by GDP and PCE on the same morning, but core capital goods orders are a direct read on business investment — one of the components sitting behind that same GDP revision. Worth a glance once the bigger numbers are digested.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
27
Aug 2026
Thursday
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial claims for the week — the fastest read on layoffs, published every Thursday morning. Claims last printed 206,000, with continuing claims near 1.799 million and the four-week average at 1.789 million.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the first of only two labor readings before the August jobs report closes the fortnight, so it carries more weight than a typical claims Thursday. A rising trend in claims is the earliest place labor-market softening shows up between monthly payroll reports.
Last Print
206K
ICSA · Wk Aug 15
7-Year Note Auction
The last scheduled Treasury sale of this fortnight and the longest maturity in it. Current 7-year yield 4.57% as of August 21.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 7-year closes out four auctions in three sessions, and demand here is the final read on whether this week's supply found buyers without cheapening the curve. It is also the last scheduled event before the calendar goes quiet into month-end.
7-Yr Yield
4.57%
BC_7YEAR · Aug 21
31
Aug 2026
Monday
Treasury International Capital — Foreign Holdings
The TIC data on foreign official and private holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, published roughly six weeks after the reference month. Reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
Four auctions cleared in the week before this print, which makes TIC the delayed read on whether foreign buyers are still there to help absorb Treasury supply. A soft number is the kind of signal that says the long end may need to cheapen to find demand — the part of the curve mortgage pricing follows most closely.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · June 2026
1
Sep 2026
Tuesday
JOLTS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Job openings, quits, and hires, published in the first week of the month on data roughly two months old. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The quits rate is the piece worth watching — workers leave voluntarily when they believe another job is waiting, which makes it a cleaner read on labor-market confidence than the openings headline. It also arrives three days before the payroll report and frames how the market positions into Friday.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · July 2026
Construction Spending
Total, residential, and nonresidential construction outlays, published on the first business day of the month with a two-month lag. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Residential construction spending is where higher financing costs show up on builders' books rather than in survey sentiment. It rarely moves the bond market on its own, but it is useful context for agents working new construction and for anyone tracking whether the building pipeline is filling or draining.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
3
Sep 2026
Thursday
Weekly Jobless Claims
The second claims print of this fortnight, and the last labor reading before the August jobs report the following morning. Claims last printed 206,000.
Why It Matters for Rates
Claims the day before a payroll Friday get read as a preview even though the survey weeks don't line up. A surprise here can shift how the market positions overnight into Friday's number, which raises the odds of a wider-than-usual range on lock pricing Thursday afternoon.
Last Print
206K
ICSA · Wk Aug 15
International Trade in Goods and Services
The full trade balance including services, published jointly by BEA and Census about five weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Net exports feed directly into the GDP arithmetic, so a large swing in the trade balance shows up in the next quarterly estimate. It is a second-order release for rates on its own, but it fills in one of the components that moved the GDP revision the market just traded.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BEA · July 2026
International Trade in Goods
The goods-only detail of the same joint release — goods exports, goods imports, and the goods balance — published by Census alongside the BEA figures. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Goods trade is the volatile half of the balance and the half that swings the headline, so this is the detail that explains any surprise in the broader number. Treat it as the footnote to the release above rather than a separate event on the day.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
4
Jobs Friday
Friday
Employment Situation — August Jobs Report
Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, U-6, average hourly earnings, and labor force participation, released the first Friday of the month at 8:30 AM. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the single biggest number in the issue and the last one before the next edition. Payrolls and average hourly earnings together tell the Fed whether the labor market is cooling enough to justify easier policy, and a surprise in either direction can move the front end of the curve fast enough to reprice locks the same morning. It also lands on the last session before the Labor Day weekend, so anyone floating into Friday is doing it with a long weekend and no market on the other side.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · August 2026
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