The Fortnight's Story
Two events decide this fortnight. August CPI prints at 8:30 AM on Friday, September 11, and the FOMC announces at 2:00 PM on Wednesday, September 16, with the Chair’s press conference half an hour later. Inflation first, policy second — and the Committee walks into its decision with the August consumer-price data already on the table. Floating past September 11 means carrying an inflation print and a rate decision inside the same window, which is a different risk than floating past either one alone.
Treasury sells the entire time. A 3-year note Tuesday the 8th, a 10-year reopening Wednesday the 9th and a 30-year reopening Thursday the 10th all price before CPI lands; a 20-year reopening follows Tuesday the 15th, the day before the Fed; and a second 10-year reopening prices Thursday the 17th, the session after the decision. The 10-year sat at 4.78% and the 30-year at 5.24% as of September 4. The window then closes on the heaviest single day in the issue — housing starts and permits, pending home sales, jobless claims and that post-Fed 10-year sale, all on Thursday the 17th.
At a Glance
6
Sun · Sept
7
Mon · Labor Day
8
Tue
3Y Note Auction
9
Wed
10Y Reopening
Quarterly Services
10
Thu
Producer Price Index
30Y Reopening
Existing-Home Sales
11
Fri · CPI
Consumer Price Index
Jobless Claims
12
Sat
13
Sun
14
Mon
15
Tue
20Y Reopening
16
Wed · Fed Day
FOMC Decision
Retail Sales
Foreign Holdings (TIC)
17
Thu · Post-Fed
Housing Starts & Permits
10Y Reopening
Pending Home Sales
Jobless Claims
18
Fri
19
Sat
— Three Themes To Watch —
What this calendar is really telling you
i.
CPI Sets the Table, the Fed Sits Down Five Days Later
August CPI lands Friday, September 11 and the FOMC decides Wednesday, September 16 — close enough that the inflation print is a live input to the decision, far enough apart that the market gets a weekend and two sessions to reprice in between. For a client weighing lock versus float, that gap is the whole question: a cooperative CPI can build a rally the Fed then either confirms or breaks, and there is no second inflation print to correct a bad one before the decision. Shelter is the largest single component of the index and the slowest to turn, so it usually decides whether the core number cooperates.
ii.
Five Coupon Sales in Eight Sessions, One of Them After the Fed
Treasury prices a 3-year Tuesday the 8th, a 10-year reopening Wednesday the 9th, a 30-year reopening Thursday the 10th, a 20-year reopening Tuesday the 15th, and a second 10-year reopening Thursday the 17th. The 10-year goes in at 4.78% and the 30-year at 5.24% as of September 4. Two of those sales bracket the decision — the 20-year the day before, the 10-year the day after — which makes them the cleanest read on how buyers actually priced the Fed rather than how the headlines described it. Thin demand at the long end is the fastest signal that mortgage pricing has more room to cheapen, because that is the part of the curve mortgage rates track most closely.
iii.
Housing Bookends the Issue, and the Forward Read Comes Last
NAR’s Existing-Home Sales prints Thursday the 10th, and Census housing starts and permits plus NAR’s Pending Home Sales both land Thursday the 17th — the housing picture arrives at the two ends of the window with the Fed in the middle. Existing sales count closings, so they reflect locks taken a month or two earlier; pending sales count signed contracts, so they are the closer thing to a forward read. July existing sales ran 4.06 million annualized. An agent who needs evidence rather than sentiment about where buyer demand is heading will get more from the pending number on the 17th than from the statement language on the 16th.
Release-by-Release Detail
8
Sep 2026
Tuesday
3-Year Note Auction
The first of five Treasury coupon sales in this fortnight, priced Tuesday afternoon at 1:00 PM ET.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 3-year sits at the policy-sensitive end of the curve, so where it prices is a live read on what the market thinks the Fed does at next week’s meeting. It also sets the tone for the 10-year and 30-year reopenings that follow on the two days after it.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · Sept 8 Auction
9
Sep 2026
Wednesday
10-Year Note Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of the current 10-year note — additional size at the same coupon and maturity — priced Wednesday afternoon. Current 10-year yield 4.78% as of September 4.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 10-year is the benchmark mortgage pricing takes its cue from, so this is one of the two auctions in the window most worth watching. It prices two days before CPI and a week before the Fed, which means buyers have to take the paper without knowing what either one says. Soft demand here shows up on mortgage rate sheets faster than in any other maturity.
10-Yr Yield
4.78%
BC_10YEAR · Sept 4
Quarterly Services Survey
Census estimates of quarterly revenue for U.S. service industries, published about two and a half months after quarter end. Reference period: Q2 2026.
Why It Matters for Rates
Services revenue is a slow-moving input the BEA later folds into GDP and PCE, which is where it eventually touches rates. It will not move the bond market on the day, but it is one of the cleaner reads on whether services demand — the stickiest part of the inflation picture — is still holding up.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · Q2 2026
10
Sep 2026
Thursday
Producer Price Index
Final demand producer prices and the core measure that strips food, energy, and trade services — the inflation reading that reaches businesses before it reaches consumers. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
PPI arrives the morning before CPI in this issue, so producer prices give the market its first read on August inflation. Several PPI components feed directly into the PCE index the Fed targets, which is why a surprise here can move the curve on its own — and it does so hours before Treasury prices the 30-year that afternoon.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · August 2026
30-Year Bond Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of the current 30-year bond, priced Thursday afternoon — the longest maturity in the window. Current 30-year yield 5.24% as of September 4.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 30-year is the most inflation-sensitive point on the curve, and it prices the same afternoon PPI printed that morning. Buyers have to absorb the longest paper with fresh producer-price data in hand and CPI still one session away. Weak demand here raises the odds of intraday repricing on mortgage rate sheets.
30-Yr Yield
5.24%
BC_30YEAR · Sept 4
Existing-Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors’ count of completed resale transactions, plus median price, inventory, and months of supply. Reference month: August. July sales ran at 4.06 million annualized.
Why It Matters for Rates
Existing sales measure closings, so this print reflects rate locks taken a month or two earlier — it is a rear-view read on affordability, not a forecast. For agents it is the most useful number in the first week of the issue: it says whether the resale market is actually clearing at current financing costs.
Prev · Existing-Home Sales
4.06M
EXHOSLUSM495S · July 2026
11
CPI Friday
Friday
Consumer Price Index
Headline and core CPI plus the shelter, services-less-energy, and food components, released at 8:30 AM about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the last inflation reading before the Committee decides on Wednesday, which makes it the hardest print in the issue to float through. Shelter is the largest single component of the index and the slowest to turn, so it usually decides whether the core number cooperates. A hot reading can undo a week of rally in one morning and narrows what the Fed can comfortably say five days later; a soft one gives the curve room to run into the decision.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · August 2026
Weekly Jobless Claims
The first claims print of this fortnight, shifted from Thursday to Friday by the Labor Day holiday week. Claims last printed 206,000.
Why It Matters for Rates
Claims release the same minute as CPI, which means the labor read gets almost no independent attention — the inflation number owns the morning. It is still the fastest read on layoffs available before the Fed decides, so it is worth checking once the CPI reaction settles.
Last Print
206K
DOL · Wk Aug 29
15
Sep 2026
Tuesday
20-Year Bond Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of the current 20-year bond, priced Tuesday afternoon — the last coupon sale before the Fed decision. Current 20-year yield 5.25% as of September 4.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 20-year is the thinnest and most demand-sensitive point on the coupon curve, and it prices the day before the FOMC announcement. That timing makes it a positioning read: buyers have to commit before the decision, so a weak result says the market is unwilling to take long duration into a rate announcement.
20-Yr Yield
5.25%
BC_20YEAR · Sept 4
16
Fed Day
Wednesday
FOMC Meeting — Federal Funds Rate Decision
The Committee’s rate decision and policy statement at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the Chair’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the largest event in the issue and the one that sets rate posture for the weeks after it. The statement is rarely the whole story — the press conference half an hour later is where the Chair’s framing of August inflation and the labor data gets tested, and the curve often reverses its first move once that begins. A client floating into Wednesday afternoon is taking the decision and the press conference, not just the headline.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Federal Reserve · Sept 16 Decision
Advance Monthly Retail Trade
Census’s first estimate of monthly retail and food-services sales, published about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
Retail sales is the cleanest monthly read on whether consumer spending is holding up, and consumer spending is what keeps services inflation sticky. It prints at 8:30 AM on decision day, hours before the announcement, so a strong number can move yields well before the Fed says a word.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · August 2026
Treasury International Capital — Foreign Holdings
The TIC data on foreign official and private holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, published roughly six weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
This issue carries five coupon sales, which makes TIC the delayed read on whether foreign buyers are still helping absorb Treasury paper. A soft number is the kind of signal that says the long end may need to cheapen to find demand — the part of the curve mortgage pricing follows most closely. It is buried under the Fed decision on the day, so it is worth going back for later in the week.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · July 2026
17
Post-Fed Thursday
Thursday
New Residential Construction — Housing Starts & Permits
Census publishes housing starts, building permits, and completions in a single release. Reference month: August. The July figure carried in this issue’s data is 1.239 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, held without a starts / permits / completions label — the release itself breaks out all three separately.
Why It Matters for Rates
Permits lead starts and starts lead completions, so this is the earliest read on whether builders are responding to financing costs. It lands the morning after the Fed decision, which puts the forward construction pipeline in front of a market still digesting policy. For agents working new construction, permits are the line that says whether inventory is actually coming.
Prev · Residential Construction
1.239M
Census · July 2026 · SAAR
10-Year Note Auction (Reopening)
A second 10-year reopening in this fortnight, priced Thursday afternoon — the first coupon sale after the Fed decision. Current 10-year yield 4.78% as of September 4.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is where the decision gets its verdict. The statement and the press conference are words; this auction is buyers putting money against them at the exact maturity mortgage pricing tracks. A strong result says the market believed what it heard on Wednesday; a weak one says whatever move followed the Fed has no depth behind it.
10-Yr Yield
4.78%
BC_10YEAR · Sept 4
Pending Home Sales Index
The National Association of Realtors’ index of signed contracts on existing homes, published about four weeks after the reference month. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
Pending sales count contracts rather than closings, which makes them the closest thing in this issue to a forward read on the resale market — roughly one to two months ahead of the existing-sales print. It is the number to hand an agent who wants evidence rather than sentiment about where buyer demand is going.
Awaits
Awaits Release
NAR · August 2026
Weekly Jobless Claims
The second claims print of this fortnight, back in its normal Thursday slot. Claims last printed 206,000.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the first labor data after the Fed decision and the last release in the window, so it gets read as an early check on whether the Committee’s view of the labor market is holding. On a day this crowded it competes with housing starts at the same minute and a 10-year auction in the afternoon.
Last Print
206K
DOL · Wk Aug 29
— Forward Outlook · Subscribe —
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