The Fortnight's Story
Two Fridays frame this fortnight. The August Employment Situation opens the window at 8:30 AM on September 4, and the August Consumer Price Index closes it at 8:30 AM on September 11 — payrolls first, inflation last, and nothing top-tier between them until the following Tuesday. A cooling payroll number gives the curve room to rally into the supply that follows; a hot CPI on the closing Friday can take that back in a single print. Floating past September 4 is a two-event bet, not one.
In between, Treasury runs its three-part coupon sequence into a holiday-shortened week: a 3-year note Tuesday the 8th, a 10-year reopening Wednesday the 9th, and a 30-year reopening Thursday the 10th, with Labor Day closing Monday the 7th. The 30-year prices the same afternoon that PPI prints in the morning, so the longest maturity in the window meets its buyers with fresh inflation data already on the screen. The 10-year goes in at 4.73% and the 30-year at 5.22% as of August 28. Anything still floating in the second week is floating into producer prices, a 30-year sale, and consumer prices on three consecutive days.
At a Glance
30
Sun
31
Mon
Foreign Holdings (TIC)
1
Tue · Sept
JOLTS
Construction Spending
2
Wed
3
Thu
Jobless Claims
Trade Balance
Trade in Goods
4
Fri · Jobs Report
Employment Situation
5
Sat
6
Sun
7
Mon · Labor Day
8
Tue
3Y Note Auction
9
Wed
10Y Reopening
Quarterly Services
10
Thu · PPI + 30Y
Producer Price Index
30Y Reopening
Existing-Home Sales
11
Fri · CPI
Consumer Price Index
Jobless Claims
12
Sat
— Three Themes To Watch —
What this calendar is really telling you
i.
Two Fridays Carry This Fortnight, Not One
The August jobs report lands Friday, September 4 and August CPI lands Friday, September 11 — the two largest numbers in the issue, a week apart, both at 8:30 AM. Everything between them is Treasury supply and second-tier data. For a client weighing lock versus float, the shape of the calendar matters more than either forecast: staying floating past the 4th means carrying payroll risk and inflation risk, and there is no quiet stretch on the far side of CPI before the next edition lands.
ii.
The Whole Coupon Sequence Fits in Four Sessions
A 3-year note Tuesday the 8th, a 10-year reopening Wednesday the 9th, a 30-year reopening Thursday the 10th — Treasury's full three-part sequence, squeezed into a week that Labor Day cuts to four sessions. The 30-year prices in the afternoon of the same day PPI prints in the morning, which puts the longest maturity in the window in front of buyers who already have new inflation data. The 10-year sits at 4.73% and the 30-year at 5.22% going in. Thin demand at the long end is the fastest signal that mortgage pricing has more room to cheapen, because that is the part of the curve mortgage rates track most closely.
iii.
Once Payrolls Clears, It Is a Prices Calendar
After September 4 the only labor data left in the window is two Thursday claims prints — initial claims last ran 203,000, with continuing claims near 1.778 million and the four-week average at 1.789 million. What fills the second week instead is prices and housing: PPI and NAR's Existing-Home Sales on the 10th, CPI on the 11th. Existing sales last printed 4.06 million annualized for July, and shelter is the single largest component inside CPI — so the housing read and the inflation read arrive on back-to-back mornings and speak to the same thing. Agents asking why buyers are still waiting will get their answer in that pair.
Release-by-Release Detail
31
Aug 2026
Monday
Treasury International Capital — Foreign Holdings
The TIC data on foreign official and private holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, published roughly six weeks after the reference month. Reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
This issue carries a 3-year, a 10-year reopening and a 30-year reopening in its second week, which makes TIC the delayed read on whether foreign buyers are still helping absorb Treasury paper. A soft number is the kind of signal that says the long end may need to cheapen to find demand — the part of the curve mortgage pricing follows most closely.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · June 2026
1
Sep 2026
Tuesday
JOLTS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Job openings, quits, and hires, published in the first week of the month on data roughly two months old. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The quits rate is the piece worth watching — workers leave voluntarily when they believe another job is waiting, which makes it a cleaner read on labor-market confidence than the openings headline. It also arrives three days ahead of the payroll report and shapes how the market positions into Friday.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · July 2026
Construction Spending
Total, residential, and nonresidential construction outlays, published on the first business day of the month with a two-month lag. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Residential construction spending is where higher financing costs show up on builders' books rather than in survey sentiment. It rarely moves the bond market on its own, but it is useful context for agents working new construction and for anyone tracking whether the building pipeline is filling or draining.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
3
Sep 2026
Thursday
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial claims for the week — the fastest read on layoffs, published every Thursday morning. Claims last printed 203,000, with continuing claims near 1.778 million and the four-week average at 1.789 million.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the last labor reading before the August jobs report the next morning, so it gets read as a preview even though the survey weeks don't line up. A surprise here can shift how the market positions overnight into Friday, which raises the odds of a wider-than-usual range on lock pricing Thursday afternoon.
Last Print
203K
ICSA · Wk Aug 22
International Trade in Goods and Services
The full trade balance including services, published jointly by BEA and Census about five weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Net exports feed directly into the GDP arithmetic, so a large swing in the trade balance shows up in the next quarterly estimate. It is a second-order release for rates on its own, and on this particular Thursday it sits in the shadow of the payroll report the following morning.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BEA · July 2026
International Trade in Goods
The goods-only detail of the same joint release — goods exports, goods imports, and the goods balance — published by Census alongside the BEA figures. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
Goods trade is the volatile half of the balance and the half that swings the headline, so this is the detail that explains any surprise in the broader number. Treat it as the footnote to the release above rather than a separate event on the day.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
4
Jobs Friday
Friday
Employment Situation — August Jobs Report
Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, U-6, average hourly earnings, and labor force participation, released the first Friday of the month at 8:30 AM. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the first of the two numbers that define the fortnight, and the one that sets the market's posture for everything after it. Payrolls and average hourly earnings together tell the Fed whether the labor market is cooling enough to justify easier policy, and a surprise in either direction can move the front end of the curve fast enough to reprice locks the same morning. Whatever the market decides here, it carries that view straight into the coupon auctions and the CPI print the following week.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · August 2026
8
Sep 2026
Tuesday
3-Year Note Auction
The first of three Treasury coupon sales in this fortnight, priced Tuesday afternoon in a week shortened by Labor Day the day before.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 3-year sits at the policy-sensitive end of the curve, so where it prices is a live read on what the market thinks the Fed does next — the first such read after Friday's payroll report. It also sets the tone for the 10-year and 30-year reopenings that follow on consecutive days.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · Sept 8 Auction
9
Sep 2026
Wednesday
10-Year Note Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of the current 10-year note — additional size at the same coupon and maturity — priced Wednesday afternoon. Current 10-year yield 4.73% as of August 28.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 10-year is the benchmark mortgage pricing takes its cue from, so this is the single auction in the window most worth watching. Soft demand here shows up in mortgage rate sheets faster than in any other maturity, and it prices the day before PPI and two days before CPI — buyers have to take the paper without knowing what the inflation data says.
10-Yr Yield
4.73%
BC_10YEAR · Aug 28
Quarterly Services Survey
Census estimates of quarterly revenue for U.S. service industries, published about two and a half months after quarter end. Reference period: Q2 2026.
Why It Matters for Rates
Services revenue is a slow-moving input the BEA later folds into GDP and PCE, which is where it eventually touches rates. It will not move the bond market on the day, but it is one of the cleaner reads on whether services demand — the stickiest part of the inflation picture — is still holding up.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · Q2 2026
10
PPI + 30-Year
Thursday
Producer Price Index
Final demand producer prices and the core measure that strips food, energy, and trade services — the inflation reading that reaches businesses before it reaches consumers. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
PPI runs ahead of CPI in this issue rather than behind it, so for once producer prices get the market's full attention before the consumer number lands the next morning. Several PPI components feed directly into the PCE index the Fed targets, which is why a surprise here can move the curve on its own — and it does so hours before Treasury prices the 30-year.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · August 2026
30-Year Bond Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of the current 30-year bond, priced Thursday afternoon — the longest maturity in the window and the last of the three coupon sales. Current 30-year yield 5.22% as of August 28.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 30-year is the most inflation-sensitive point on the curve, and it prices the same afternoon PPI printed that morning. That pairing is the reason this is a pivot day: buyers have to absorb the longest paper with fresh producer-price data in hand and CPI still one session away. Weak demand here raises the odds of intraday repricing on mortgage rate sheets.
30-Yr Yield
5.22%
BC_30YEAR · Aug 28
Existing-Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors' count of completed resale transactions, plus median price, inventory, and months of supply. Reference month: August. July sales ran at 4.06 million annualized.
Why It Matters for Rates
Existing sales measure closings, so this print reflects rate locks taken a month or two earlier — it is a rear-view read on affordability, not a forecast. For agents it is the most useful number in the issue: it says whether the resale market is actually clearing at current financing costs, and it lands the same morning as PPI and one day before CPI.
Prev · Existing-Home Sales
4.06M
EXHOSLUSM495S · July 2026
11
CPI Friday
Friday
Consumer Price Index
Headline and core CPI plus the shelter, services-less-energy, and food components, released at 8:30 AM about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: August.
Why It Matters for Rates
CPI closes this fortnight and it is the last number before the next edition, which makes it the hardest print in the issue to float through. Shelter is the largest single component of the index and the slowest to turn, so it usually decides whether the core number cooperates. A hot reading can undo a week of rally in one morning, and it lands the day after Treasury placed the 30-year — so the long end finds out immediately whether it paid the right price.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · August 2026
Weekly Jobless Claims
The second claims print of this fortnight, shifted to Friday by the Labor Day holiday week. Claims last printed 203,000, with continuing claims near 1.778 million.
Why It Matters for Rates
Claims release the same minute as CPI this week, which means the labor read gets almost no independent attention — the inflation number owns the morning. It still matters as the only labor data between the September 4 payroll report and the next edition, so it is worth checking after the CPI reaction settles.
Last Print
203K
ICSA · Wk Aug 22
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