Recorded October 19, 2026. Figures and market conditions reflect information available on that date and may have changed since. Independent research by Todd Hanley; not the views of United Direct Lending.
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Last month I told you Florida's inventory was falling for the wrong reason. Sellers were giving up and pulling their homes off the market. September's numbers are out, and that story just flipped.
The sellers came back.
Statewide, single-family new listings did not drop from August to September. That sounds like nothing. It isn't. In every September since 2015, except 2020, new listings fell. Usually by roughly 3 to 15%, and by as much as 38% in a hurricane year. This year they held. And active inventory went up in a month when it normally slips.
New listings are now higher than a year ago. Single-family up 2.4%. Condos up 3.6%.
Now the buyers. Single-family new pending sales, the contracts that get signed, fell 12% in one month and almost 8% from last September. That is the weakest September for buyers since the 2022 rate shock. Closings were down 3.5%.
So more homes coming on, fewer contracts going out. That is how a falling-inventory market turns back into a rising one.
Inventory is still down from a year ago. Single-family down almost 10%. Condos down 9%. But last month those numbers were 13 and 11 and a half. The gap is closing, and it is closing because supply is coming back into weaker demand.
Prices haven't reacted yet. The statewide single-family median is $415,000, up 1.2%, exactly where it was in August. The median condo is $293,500, down 1.8% from a year ago.
Last month 4 of Florida's 22 metros were seller's markets for houses. This month, 1. Palm Bay-Melbourne. 10 are now balanced.
Condos are still the buyer's side of the state. 15 of 22 are buyer's markets or worse. Statewide, condos sit at 7.7 months of supply against 4.4 for houses. That gap was 4 months a year ago. Now it's 3.3. Still narrowing.
And watch Tallahassee. Condo inventory is up almost 32% from a year ago and has risen 6 months straight. Months of supply went from 3.6 to 5.9 since March. The sharpest turn anywhere in Florida.
So what do you do with this. If you're selling a house, the window where you had the market to yourself is closing. More listings are coming, and fewer buyers are signing. Price it right the first time.
If you're buying, for the first time in a while you have more to choose from and less competition for it.
If you want the numbers for your specific city or county, reach out.
I'm Todd Hanley, Senior Loan Officer with United Direct Lending and Mortgage Broker. If you'd like a transparent, data-driven process that removes the guesswork, I'd love to speak with you today. Thanks for watching.
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Independent research and commentary. The research, data analysis, and opinions in this video and on this page are Todd Hanley's own and do not represent the views of United Direct Lending. They are not lending advice and are not tied to any loan program, product, or lending decision.
Educational content only. Not a commitment to lend, a rate quote, or an offer of credit. Programs, rates, fees, and guidelines are subject to change without notice; not all borrowers will qualify. Todd Hanley, RICP® | NMLS #1013665 | United Direct Lending NMLS #1749719 | Equal Housing Opportunity.