July SunStats Florida Market Update

Florida's July numbers are out, and they do not say what most people think they say. Sales are up. Inventory is down. And the condo market that everyone wrote off is quietly having its best month in a year.

Let's start statewide. Single-family closed sales came in at 23,222 across Florida's 22 metros. That's up 4.9% from last July.

Condos did better. 8,094 closings, up 10.5% year over year. Condo sales are growing twice as fast as single-family right now.

Now here's the number that actually matters. Inventory is falling almost everywhere, and it's falling hard. Punta Gorda is down 25% year over year. Miami down 23.7%. Cape Coral down 18%. Palm Bay down 17.7%. Sarasota and Jacksonville both down about 16.5%.

More sales, less inventory. That is a market tightening, not cooling.

So let's talk prices. Here's where the major metros stand on single-family.

Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach, $665,000, up 4.3%. Sarasota, $495,000, up 3.1%. Orlando, $455,000, up 2.5%. Port St. Lucie, $425,000, up 4.7%. Tampa and Jacksonville are both at $415,000, up 2.5% and 4.1%.

The biggest single-family gain in the state is Naples, up 11.1% to $800,000. Sebring is up 8.3%. Gainesville up 5.7%.

Only two metros are negative on single-family price. Pensacola is down 2.1%, and Sebastian Vero Beach is down 1%. That's it. 20 of 22 metros are flat or higher.

Now the condo side, and this is the real story this month.

Condo sales are up double digits in metro after metro. Panama City up 36%. Cape Coral and Sarasota both up 26.4%. Naples up 22.5%. Punta Gorda up 20%. Jacksonville up 19.6%.

And condo inventory is draining right alongside it. Punta Gorda condo inventory down 22%. Cape Coral down 19.7%. Jacksonville and Deltona both down 19%. Sebastian down 20.3%. Miami down 15%.

Here's what's happening. Condo prices came down, and buyers showed up. That's absorption, and it's the first real sign of a floor.

But be careful, because it is not uniform. Condo prices are still falling in a lot of places. The Villages down 11.3%. Homosassa Springs down 9.8%. Naples condo down 6.6%. Punta Gorda down 5.6%. Ocala down 5.9%.

And other condo markets have already turned. Pensacola condo is up 25% year over year. Tallahassee up 15.9%. Sebastian up 11.3%. Gainesville up 8.3%.

Two more things worth knowing.

Condos still take a lot longer to sell. In Cape Coral the typical condo takes 112 days to go under contract, and sellers are getting 89.5% of their original asking price. In Naples it's 115 days at 89.8%. If you're selling a condo in southwest Florida, price it right the first time.

And the fastest market in Florida is Tallahassee. 23 days to contract, 98.7% of list. Though notice, closings there are down almost 25%, and that's because there's nothing to buy. 3.8 months of supply.

So what does all this mean.

If you're selling single-family, inventory is down double digits in most of this state and sales are up. That is a better position than the headlines suggest.

If you're selling a condo, buyers are back, but they're buying on price. Days on market and discount are still real, so the number you list at decides everything.

And if you're buying a condo, particularly in southwest Florida, you're looking at some of the last real discounts in this cycle. Inventory is draining fast.

That's July. If you want the numbers for your specific market, reach out. Todd Hanley, 954-806-5114.