Florida Housing Market Update - June 2026, Q2 2026, and Mid-Year Review

Florida’s housing market is giving us two different stories right now.

And if you only look at statewide averages, you’re going to miss the real picture.

This is bigger than a normal Florida housing update.

Florida is showing, in real time, what the broader economy looks like when asset values and affordability move in opposite directions.

The top of the market is not just surviving. It is taking a larger share of the dollars.

The lower price tiers are shrinking.

And condos, which used to be one of the more accessible options, are now carrying a lot of the affordability pressure.

That is not a political statement. That is what the data shows.

Start with the structure.

In 2008, homes under $400,000 made up 86 percent of Florida single-family sales.

By 2026, that share was down to 46 percent.

The middle tier, from $400,000 to $1 million, grew from 11 percent to 43 percent.

And the over-$1 million segment grew from 3 percent to 11 percent.

The entire distribution moved up-market.

The big break happened around 2022.

In 2019, homes under $400,000 were still 79 percent of sales.

By 2022, they had fallen to 49 percent.

That is the point where the market flipped.

The old affordable majority became less than half of the market.

And this is not just because homes got a little more expensive.

There are fewer lower-priced sales happening.

Under-$400,000 single-family sales fell from about 232,000 in 2019 to about 116,000 in 2024.

That is roughly half as many affordable single-family homes selling each year.

At the top, the story is completely different.

Homes over $1 million were 11 percent of sales in 2026, but they represented 41 percent of the dollars.

That means roughly 1 in 9 homes accounted for about 4 in 10 dollars.

The money is not distributed the same way the homes are.

And cash tells the same story.

In 2025, cash made up about 25 percent of sales under $400,000.

It was also about 25 percent from $400,000 to $1 million.

But above $1 million, cash was 52 percent.

That makes the top of the market less dependent on mortgage rates than the middle of the market.

So when people say, “Just wait for rates to come down,” that does not affect every buyer the same way.

A cash-heavy buyer at the top is playing a different game.

Now bring that into the current market.

Through June 2026, single-family homes across Florida were generally much firmer than condos and townhomes.

Looking at comparable markets in the second quarter, single-family median prices rose in 47 out of 56 markets.

Condos and townhomes only rose in 22 out of 56.

That is the current split layered on top of the longer-term structural shift.

Single-family homes were not strong everywhere.

But across the data, they were much more resilient.

The average market-level median price change for single-family homes was up about 8.1 percent year over year.

For condos and townhomes, it was down about 2.6 percent.

Now here is the part that matters.

This is not simply an inventory story.

Active inventory was down for both property types.

Single-family inventory was down about 16 percent.

Condo and townhome inventory was down about 15 percent.

Normally, lower inventory helps support prices.

And on the single-family side, that is mostly what happened.

But condos weakened even though inventory also declined.

That tells us the condo issue is likely more about demand, affordability, and total cost of ownership than just excess supply.

And that is why condos matter so much in this report.

In 2026, only about 4 percent of single-family sales were under $200,000.

For condos, it was 23 percent.

So condos are still one of the last remaining lower-price entry points.

But that segment is now under pressure from insurance, association dues, reserve requirements, special assessments, building maintenance, and financing restrictions.

That is the problem.

The part of the market that still carries some affordability is also the part getting hit by rising ownership costs.

The city-level data makes the split easier to see.

Boca Raton is one of the clearest examples.

Boca single-family median prices were up about 22.3 percent year over year on a Q2-smoothed basis.

But Boca condos were down about 10.5 percent.

Same city. Same broader market. Two different outcomes.

Deerfield Beach showed a different kind of weakness.

Single-family prices were down about 19.1 percent, and condos were down about 13.6 percent.

So not every city fits the same pattern.

That is why local data matters.

Some condo markets showed especially sharp declines, including Winter Park, Kissimmee, Coral Springs, Aventura, Boca Raton, and Deerfield Beach.

But this is not a statewide condo collapse.

The better interpretation is that condos are facing more pricing pressure than single-family homes.

Sales activity also matters here.

Closed sales were up for both property types in Q2.

Single-family closed sales were up about 9.9 percent.

Condos and townhomes were up about 10 percent.

So this is not a market where buyers completely disappeared.

It is a market where buyers appear to be more selective, especially in condos.

The mid-year numbers confirm the same trend.

For the first half of 2026, single-family prices rose in 40 of 56 comparable markets.

Condos rose in only 14 of 56.

That is the main takeaway.

Florida is not one housing market right now.

It is a market where the price ladder has moved up, the lower tiers have compressed, the upper tier is capturing more of the dollars, and condos are carrying more of the affordability burden while showing stress.

This is not about blaming anyone.

It is about looking at the structure honestly.

Property type matters.

Price tier matters.

Local market matters.

And statewide averages are not enough anymore.

The headline is simple:

Florida’s housing market has split.

And the split is visible in the data.