Asset managers were net long 3,030,236 10-year Treasury futures in the week of November 3, up 30,072 on the week

Q1 Who bought the latest 10-year auction?

Of $38.7 billion sold competitively on October 7, indirect bidders took 80.3% and direct bidders 17.1%. Primary dealers, who are expected to bid for a pro-rata share of every auction at reasonably competitive prices, were allotted 2.5%: the lowest dealer share on record (since May 2008), out of 220 ten-year auctions since May 2008. The bid-to-cover of 2.77 is the highest bid-to-cover since January 13, 2016, when it was also 2.77.

Indirect bidders are foreign official and private accounts and domestic institutions bidding through a dealer; Treasury does not publish who they are. Allotments are shares of the competitive amount; the Fed’s own rollover (SOMA) is excluded. Allotments show who won the bonds at auction, not who holds them afterward.

Rankings cover 220 regular 10-year auctions since May 2008: each new 10-year note and its scheduled reopenings. 6 other Treasury records are left out: Oct 8, 2008, an off-cycle reopening of an older 10-year note (6-year 7-month left to maturity); Oct 8, 2008, an off-cycle reopening of an older 10-year note (6-year 10-month left to maturity); Oct 9, 2008, an off-cycle reopening of an older 10-year note (6-year 4-month left to maturity); Oct 9, 2008, an off-cycle reopening of an older 10-year note (9-year 4-month left to maturity); Jun 21, 2019, a $25 million small-value test auction; Nov 5, 2019, a 3-year note mislabeled as a 10-year in Treasury’s database.

Q2 How are futures traders positioned?

In 10-year T-note futures for the week of November 3, asset managers (pension funds, insurers, mutual funds) were net long 3,030,236 contracts, the highest asset-manager net long on record (since June 2006). The market has grown from 1,912,279 contracts of open interest to 5,947,433, so as a share of it, 51.0%, the position ranks 2nd of 1,065 weeks; the five highest weeks all fall since September 2026. That changed by +30,072 on the week, +435,557 over 13 weeks and +906,765 over a year. Leveraged funds were net −2,262,310 contracts. The basis trade, holding the bond and shorting the future against it, is one likely part of that short, but CFTC data cannot separate it from directional or other relative-value positions.

Q3 Are riskier assets being repriced?

The ICE BofA high-yield spread over Treasuries was 3.48% on November 5, +8bp over two weeks and +77bp over 13. Its 52-week low was 2.60%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,353.73 on November 5, against a prior high of 7,818.93, -4.6% over 13 weeks.

FRED carries ICE BofA spread history only from November 2023 under ICE’s license, so no longer comparison is made here.

Q4 What moved the 10-year yield?

As of November 6, 2:59 PM ET the 10-year yielded 4.859%, +2bp from the prior close of 4.837%, after trading between 4.814% and 4.903% today (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Yield Index). The breakdown below uses Treasury’s own daily closes, the newest of which is November 6.

The 10-year yield is the TIPS real yield plus breakeven inflation. Over the 13 weeks to November 6 the 10-year moved +21bp: real yield +23bp, breakeven −2bp. The 2-to-10-year curve is 0.35 percentage points (−11bp over 13 weeks).

Q5 Are banks and foreign central banks adding Treasuries?

U.S. commercial banks held $4,791 billion of Treasury and agency securities in the week of October 21 (Fed H.8, seasonally adjusted): −39B over 13 weeks and +101B over a year, and −51B from the 52-week high of $4,843 billion on July 29. Of that, $2,087 billion is Treasury and agency debt (+15B over 13 weeks) and $2,705 billion is mortgage-backed (−55B). Part of these holdings is carried at market value, so rising yields lower the totals without any selling.

Treasuries the New York Fed holds in custody for foreign central banks and international accounts were $2,544 billion on November 4, the lowest level since November 3, 2010, when it was $2,541 billion (Fed H.4.1, face value, so changes are holdings, not prices): −22B over 4 weeks, −87B over 13 and −226B over a year. Foreign official holders also keep Treasuries elsewhere; this is the part held at the Fed.