Independent research. The data analysis on this page is Todd Hanley’s own and does not represent the views of United Direct Lending. It is not lending advice and is not tied to any loan program, product, or lending decision. Educational content only. Not a commitment to lend, a rate quote, or an offer of credit. Todd Hanley, RICP® | NMLS #1013665 | United Direct Lending NMLS #1749719 | Equal Housing Opportunity.
30-year fixed: 7.22% MND, 7.174% Optimal Blue, 7.24% Freddie Mac
Three independent benchmarks for the same loan, each on its own date. Mortgage News Daily posts its index late each afternoon, Optimal Blue's locked-rate index appears the next business day, and Freddie Mac's survey is weekly. They measure different things and are not averaged together.
Q1 Where are mortgage rates on each benchmark?
Mortgage News Daily · November 4, 2026
| Product | Rate | Day | Compared with |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr fixed | 7.22% | −0.08 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| 15-yr fixed | 6.85% | −0.06 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| 30-yr jumbo | 7.40% | −0.05 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.73% | +0.02 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| 30-yr FHA | 6.89% | −0.06 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| 30-yr VA | 6.90% | −0.07 | Nov 3, 2026 |
Mortgage News Daily daily index, read from mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/mnd and dated by MND.
Optimal Blue · November 3, 2026
| Product | Rate | Day | Compared with |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr conforming | 7.174% | +0.044 | Nov 2, 2026 |
| 30-yr FHA | 6.986% | +0.027 | Nov 2, 2026 |
| 30-yr VA | 6.808% | +0.043 | Nov 2, 2026 |
| 30-yr jumbo | 7.201% | +0.153 | Nov 2, 2026 |
| 15-yr conforming | 6.493% | −0.082 | Nov 2, 2026 |
| 30-yr USDA | 7.130% | +0.149 | Nov 2, 2026 |
Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (locked rates), via FRED, dated by Optimal Blue's observation date.
Freddie Mac PMMS · week of October 29, 2026
| Product | Rate | Week | Compared with |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr fixed | 7.24% | −8 bp | Oct 22, 2026 |
| 15-yr fixed | 6.60% | −8 bp | Oct 22, 2026 |
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, read from freddiemac.com (PMMS_history.csv); FRED's copy checked against it.
Q2 How far do mortgage rates sit above the 10-year Treasury?
| Spread | Level | Date | Change | Against its own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimal Blue 30-yr conforming − 10-yr | 222 bp | Nov 3, 2026 | 0 bp | wider than 57% of 2,450 days since Jan 3, 2017; range 147 bp (May 10, 2021) to 311 bp (May 30, 2023) |
| MND 30-yr fixed − 10-yr | 232 bp | Nov 4, 2026 | −3 bp | wider than 96% of 216 days since Dec 17, 2025; range 182 bp (Jan 12, 2026) to 236 bp (Nov 2, 2026) |
| Freddie Mac 30-yr − 10-yr (week average) | 224 bp | Oct 29, 2026 | +1 bp | wider than 85% of 2,901 weeks since Apr 2, 1971; range 4 bp (Feb 22, 1980) to 535 bp (Apr 25, 1980) |
10-year: U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, the same day as each rate (Freddie Mac: the average over the seven days ending on the survey date). Change is against each spread's previous date. A wider spread means mortgage rates sit further above the 10-year.
Percentage points. The full-history line uses Freddie Mac because its survey starts in 1971; Optimal Blue starts in 2017 and MND's stored history in December 2025.
Q3 What moved the 30-year rate?
Freddie Mac 30-year, week of October 29, 2026, split into the 10-year Treasury real yield, breakeven inflation (10-year nominal minus real) and the mortgage spread. Basis points; the three pieces add up to the rate change.
| Window | 30-yr rate | 10-yr real yield | Breakeven inflation | Mortgage spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week (Oct 22, 2026 → Oct 29, 2026) | −8 | −9 | 0 | +1 |
| 4 weeks (Oct 1, 2026 → Oct 29, 2026) | −4 | −24 | 0 | +20 |
| 13 weeks (Jul 30, 2026 → Oct 29, 2026) | +58 | +23 | +11 | +24 |
| 52 weeks (Oct 30, 2025 → Oct 29, 2026) | +107 | +90 | +6 | +11 |
Freddie Mac PMMS; U.S. Treasury daily par and real yield curves, averaged over the survey week. From the Rate Driver Decomposition, which checks every value against FRED.
Q4 Where is the Treasury yield curve?
| Close Nov 4, 2026 | vs Nov 3, 2026 | vs Oct 5, 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month bill | 4.21% | 0 bp | −1 bp |
| 2-year note | 4.58% | −3 bp | −26 bp |
| 10-year note | 4.90% | −5 bp | −41 bp |
| 30-year bond | 5.28% | −4 bp | −38 bp |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | +32 bp | −2 bp | −15 bp |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | +69 bp | −5 bp | −40 bp |
| 30-yr minus 10-yr | +38 bp | +1 bp | +3 bp |
| 10-yr real yield (TIPS) | 2.64% | −1 bp | −31 bp |
| 10-yr breakeven inflation | 2.26% | −4 bp | −10 bp |
Nov 4, 2026 1 week earlier, Oct 28, 2026 1 month earlier, Oct 5, 2026 1 year earlier, Nov 4, 2025
U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates (10-year); breakeven is the nominal 10-year minus the real 10-year. One month earlier is the curve day nearest the same date in the previous month. Spreads and breakeven are not coloured.
Q5 What is the Treasury selling, and what does it hold?
Upcoming note and bond auctions
| Auction | Security | Size |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | 3-Year Note | $58 billion |
| Nov 10, 2026 | 10-Year Note | $42 billion |
| Nov 12, 2026 | 30-Year Bond | $25 billion |
TreasuryDirect upcoming securities; bill auctions left out.
Recent 10-year note auctions
| Auction | High yield | Bid-to-cover | Indirect | Direct | Dealers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | reopening | 5.300% | 2.77 | 80.3% | 17.1% | 2.5% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | reopening | 4.834% | 2.71 | 79.2% | 16.5% | 4.3% |
| Aug 12, 2026 | new issue | 4.683% | 2.53 | 76.7% | 14.7% | 8.6% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | reopening | 4.580% | 2.59 | 81.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | reopening | 4.538% | 2.57 | 78.2% | 12.3% | 9.5% |
| May 12, 2026 | new issue | 4.468% | 2.40 | 64.0% | 24.1% | 12.0% |
Fiscal Data auctions_query. Shares are of the competitive bids accepted; the three groups add up to it and bid-to-cover recomputes (excluding the Fed’s SOMA) for every 10-year auction since May 2008. Indirect bidders submit bids through an intermediary, such as a primary dealer, and include foreign and international monetary authorities bidding through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; direct bidders submit their own.
Treasury cash and debt
| Level | Date | A year earlier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash (TGA closing balance) | $938.2 billion | Nov 3, 2026 | $925.0 billion on Nov 3, 2025 |
| Total public debt outstanding | $40.547 trillion | Nov 3, 2026 | $38.004 trillion on Nov 3, 2025 |
Daily Treasury Statement (operating cash balance: opening + deposits − withdrawals = closing, and each day opens at the previous close, checked every day shown); Debt to the Penny (held by the public + intragovernmental = total, checked every day).
Q6 How have the three 30-year benchmarks moved?
Last 12 months, from November 4, 2025. The full history follows.
Optimal Blue’s index starts January 3, 2017. MND history before October 2026 comes from a daily scrape and keeps only days that MND's own published changes confirm on both sides, so a few days are missing.
Reports on this topic
The weekly MIM reports go deeper and are reviewed before they publish.
- Yield Curve weekly, latest Oct 23, 2026
- Treasury Demand weekly, latest Oct 27, 2026
- FOMC Decision each Fed meeting, latest Oct 28, 2026