Independent research. The data analysis on this page is Todd Hanley’s own and does not represent the views of United Direct Lending. It is not lending advice and is not tied to any loan program, product, or lending decision. Educational content only. Not a commitment to lend, a rate quote, or an offer of credit. Todd Hanley, RICP® | NMLS #1013665 | United Direct Lending NMLS #1749719 | Equal Housing Opportunity.
Payrolls were little changed in September (+29,000); the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.2%
Total nonfarm payrolls changed by +29,000, inside BLS’s 90% confidence interval of ±122,000 on the monthly change, so BLS does not call it a gain or a loss. The 3-month average is +51,000. Unemployment rate 4.2% (+0.1pp, inside BLS’s ±0.3pp interval). Average hourly earnings rose 3.0% over 12 months.
Q1 How many jobs were added in September?
Total nonfarm payrolls changed by +29,000 to 159,044,000. That is inside BLS’s 90% confidence interval of ±122,000 on the monthly change (technical note, 2026-07 Employment Situation), so the change cannot be distinguished from zero. Private employers +46,000; government −17,000. Over three months payrolls averaged +51,000 a month, the lowest since July 2026 for a 3-month average. Over 12 months payrolls changed by +496,000 (+0.3%); the average over the prior 12 months was +45,000 a month. 4 of the last 12 months showed a decline.
Payroll change
Q2 Which industries added or lost jobs?
Largest gains: private education and health services +20,000, construction +11,000, leisure and hospitality +10,000. Largest declines: government −17,000, information −10,000, professional and business services −9,000. BLS publishes no confidence interval for industry changes in the release, so these are point estimates.
| Industry | Sep | Aug | 12-month | 12-month % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining and logging | −2K | +3K | +2K | +0.3% |
| Construction | +11K | +16K | +109K | +1.3% |
| Manufacturing | +9K | +15K | +40K | +0.3% |
| Wholesale trade | +5K | +8K | +26K | +0.4% |
| Retail trade | +6K | −5K | +26K | +0.2% |
| Transportation and warehousing | +8K | +3K | −10K | −0.1% |
| Utilities | +0.5K | +2K | +10K | +1.7% |
| Information | −10K | −18K | −120K | −4.2% |
| Financial activities | −7K | −9K | −107K | −1.2% |
| Professional and business services | −9K | −5K | +123K | +0.6% |
| Private education and health services | +20K | +38K | +516K | +1.9% |
| Health care | +17K | +372K | +2.0% | |
| Leisure and hospitality | +10K | +37K | +62K | +0.4% |
| Other services | +6K | +3K | +34K | +0.6% |
| Government | −17K | +44K | −216K | −0.9% |
| Federal | −1K | −232K | −8.0% | |
| State government | −3K | −25K | −0.5% | |
| Local government | −13K | +41K | +0.3% |
Q3 What did BLS revise?
Each release revises the two prior months as more survey responses arrive. Total nonfarm: July from +21,000 to −10,000; August from +162,000 to +133,000. Together the two months are 60,000 lower than previously reported.
| Series | Month | Previous release | Now | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm | Jul 2026 | +21K | −10K | −31K |
| Total nonfarm | Aug 2026 | +162K | +133K | −29K |
| Total private | Jul 2026 | +71K | +28K | −43K |
| Total private | Aug 2026 | +127K | +89K | −38K |
| Government | Jul 2026 | −50K | −38K | +12K |
| Government | Aug 2026 | +35K | +44K | +9K |
Q4 What did the household survey show?
The unemployment rate was 4.2% (+0.1pp, inside BLS’s ±0.3pp interval, so little changed). It is the highest since June 2026, and has ranged from 4.1% to 4.5% over the last 12 months. The number unemployed changed by +78,000 (inside the ±425,000 interval). Long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) were 27.1% of all unemployed.
| Measure | Sep | Aug | 1-month | 12-month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (U-3) | 4.2% | 4.1% | +0.1pp | −0.2pp |
| U-6 (unemployed + marginally attached + part time for economic reasons) | 7.6% | 7.7% | −0.1pp | −0.5pp |
| Labor force participation rate | 61.8% | 61.6% | +0.2pp | −0.7pp |
| Employment-population ratio | 59.2% | 59.1% | +0.1pp | −0.5pp |
| Participation rate, ages 25-54 | 83.7% | 83.4% | +0.3pp | 0.0pp |
| Employment-population ratio, ages 25-54 | 80.7% | 80.4% | +0.3pp | 0.0pp |
| Unemployed | 7,109,000 | 7,031,000 | +78K | −496K |
| Employed | 163,152,000 | 162,746,000 | +406K | −504K |
| Unemployed 27 weeks or longer | 1,944,000 | 1,930,000 | +14K | +129K |
| Long-term unemployed, % of all unemployed | 27.1% | 27.0% | +0.1pp | +3.5pp |
| Not in the labor force | 105,292,000 | 105,638,000 | −346K | +2,328K |
Q5 What happened to pay and hours?
Average hourly earnings for all private employees rose 5¢ (+0.1%) to $37.81, and 3.0% over 12 months (prior 3.1%). Annualized, the last 3 months ran at 2.4% and the last 6 at 2.5%. Production and nonsupervisory employees: $32.60, +0.2% on the month and 3.3% over 12 months. The average workweek was 34.4 hours (unchanged).
Average hourly earnings, all private
Q6 Where does this sit in history?
Payrolls are up 0.3% over 12 months, the lowest since July 2026 for that rate. This month’s +29,000 is at or above 26% of monthly changes since 1939. The 4.2% unemployment rate is at or above 24% of months since 1948 (COVID months Mar 2020–Jun 2021 left out of both rankings).
| Decade | Avg monthly payroll change | Avg unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1930s (partial) | +147K | — |
| 1940s | +100K | 4.9% |
| 1950s | +89K | 4.5% |
| 1960s | +142K | 4.8% |
| 1970s | +162K | 6.2% |
| 1980s | +151K | 7.3% |
| 1990s | +183K | 5.8% |
| 2000s | −8K | 5.5% |
| 2010s | +183K | 6.2% |
| 2020s (partial) | +90K | 4.8% |