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Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3 2026, up from 2.2% in Q2
BEA’s advance estimate for the third quarter of 2026: real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate and is +2.1% from a year earlier. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, which leave out inventories, trade and government, rose at a 4.9% rate. Consumer spending added +2.52pp, investment +3.27pp (inventories +1.61pp) and government +0.90pp; net exports subtracted 3.32 points.
Q1 What did the economy do in Q3 2026?
Real GDP, the economy’s output of goods and services adjusted for prices, grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter after +2.2% in Q2 2026. That is +2.1% above the same quarter a year earlier. BEA states quarterly growth as an annual rate: the pace if the quarter’s change continued for a full year. This is the advance estimate; BEA revises it as more complete source data arrive, next on November 25, 2026.
| Component | Q3 2026, annual rate | Q2 | vs year earlier | Contribution to GDP growth | Share of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | +3.4% | +2.2% | +2.1% | +3.40pp | 100.0% |
| Consumer spending (PCE) | +3.8% | +3.8% | +2.5% | +2.52pp | 67.6% |
| Goods | +3.0% | +4.5% | +2.3% | +0.63pp | 21.0% |
| Services | +4.1% | +3.4% | +2.6% | +1.89pp | 46.6% |
| Private investment | +19.4% | +4.6% | +7.9% | +3.27pp | 18.6% |
| Fixed investment | +9.4% | +7.7% | +6.1% | +1.66pp | 18.5% |
| Business investment (nonresidential) | +12.7% | +9.0% | +8.4% | +1.78pp | 15.0% |
| Structures | +5.4% | +0.1% | −3.6% | +0.15pp | 2.9% |
| Equipment | +20.9% | +13.4% | +14.1% | +1.16pp | 6.2% |
| Intellectual property products | +8.4% | +9.2% | +9.3% | +0.47pp | 5.8% |
| Residential investment | −3.3% | +2.8% | −2.5% | −0.12pp | 3.6% |
| Change in private inventories | contribution only | +1.61pp | 0.1% | ||
| Net exports | contribution only | −3.32pp | -3.7% | ||
| Exports | −5.7% | +5.0% | +2.0% | −0.68pp | 11.4% |
| Imports | +19.7% | +12.6% | +10.3% | −2.64pp | 15.1% |
| Government | +5.3% | −0.1% | +1.0% | +0.90pp | 17.5% |
| Federal | +15.8% | −2.4% | +1.4% | +0.91pp | 6.2% |
| State and local | −0.1% | +1.2% | +0.8% | −0.01pp | 11.2% |
Growth rates and contributions are BEA’s own published figures (tables 1.1.1, 1.1.2 and 1.1.11), seasonally adjusted. Imports are subtracted in GDP, so faster import growth shows as a negative contribution. Shares are of nominal GDP.
Q2 What added to and what subtracted from the 3.4%?
BEA splits GDP growth into each component’s contribution, in percentage points. The largest addition came from consumer spending (+2.52pp); the largest subtraction from net exports (−3.32pp). Together they come to +3.37pp, against GDP growth of +3.4% (BEA rounds each piece). Inventories and net exports swing widely from quarter to quarter and often reverse the next.
Q3 What did demand do without inventories, trade and government?
Final sales to private domestic purchasers (consumer spending plus private fixed investment) rose at a 4.9% annual rate in Q3 2026 after +4.6% in Q2 2026. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which add government, rose +5.0%; final sales of domestic product, which count exports and imports but leave out inventories, +1.7%; gross domestic purchases +6.6%.
| Measure (Q3 2026 annual rate) | Q3 2026 | Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Final sales to private domestic purchasers | +4.9% | +4.6% |
| Final sales to domestic purchasers | +5.0% | +3.8% |
| Final sales of domestic product | +1.7% | +2.8% |
| Gross domestic purchases | +6.6% | +3.3% |
| Real GDP | +3.4% | +2.2% |
Q4 What did prices do?
The GDP price index, which covers everything produced in the U.S., rose at a 2.3% annual rate in Q3 2026 after 6.1% in Q2 2026, and is up 3.7% from a year earlier. The PCE price index rose at a 2.1% rate (3.5% from a year earlier; 3.1% excluding food and energy). The Federal Reserve’s 2% goal is set on the monthly PCE price index, covered in the MIM PCE report.
Q5 Where does this sit in history?
At 3.4%, growth is the fastest since Q3 2025, at or above 57% of the 313 quarters since Q2 1947. Since 1984 real GDP has grown at an average 2.8% annual rate; in BEA’s current figures the last quarter it shrank was Q1 2022 (COVID quarters Q2 2020–Q2 2021 left out of the rankings).
Q6 What did BEA revise?
Against the figures BEA had published before this release (our vintage ledger as of 8:30 a.m. ET on October 29), 0 of 4 earlier quarters now read differently.
| Quarter | Annual rate, before this release | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | +3.9% | +3.9% | +0.0pp |
| Q4 2025 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.0pp |
| Q1 2026 | +2.5% | +2.5% | +0.0pp |
| Q2 2026 | +2.2% | +2.2% | +0.0pp |
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