Independent research. The data analysis on this page is Todd Hanley’s own and does not represent the views of United Direct Lending. It is not lending advice and is not tied to any loan program, product, or lending decision. Educational content only. Not a commitment to lend, a rate quote, or an offer of credit. Todd Hanley, RICP® | NMLS #1013665 | United Direct Lending NMLS #1749719 | Equal Housing Opportunity.
The 10-year Treasury yields 37bp more than the 2-year, down from 51bp a week earlier
Treasury’s par yield curve for October 14: 2-year 4.82%, 10-year 5.19%, 3-month bill 4.28%. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is +91bp. Over the week the 2-year rose 5bp and the 10-year fell 9bp.
Q1 What does the curve look like today?
On October 14 Treasury’s par yields ran from 4.11% on the 1-month to 5.57% on the 20-year. The table compares each maturity with the same point on the curve a week, a month, three months and a year earlier (nearest Treasury day to each calendar date).
| Maturity | Oct 14 | vs 1 week (Oct 7) | vs 1 month (Sep 14) | vs 3 months (Jul 15) | vs 1 year (Oct 14) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month | 4.11% | +4bp | +17bp | +38bp | −8bp |
| 3-month | 4.28% | +6bp | +17bp | +45bp | +26bp |
| 6-month | 4.37% | +9bp | +19bp | +44bp | +57bp |
| 1-year | 4.53% | +11bp | +16bp | +56bp | +95bp |
| 2-year | 4.82% | +5bp | +17bp | +69bp | +134bp |
| 3-year | 4.92% | +5bp | +19bp | +74bp | +145bp |
| 5-year | 5.00% | −3bp | +20bp | +74bp | +140bp |
| 7-year | 5.09% | −6bp | +21bp | +70bp | +130bp |
| 10-year | 5.19% | −9bp | +22bp | +64bp | +116bp |
| 20-year | 5.57% | −14bp | +20bp | +50bp | +98bp |
| 30-year | 5.52% | −15bp | +18bp | +44bp | +90bp |
Where a longer maturity yields less than the one before it on this curve: 30-year −5bp vs 20-year.
Q2 How far is each spread from inverting?
A spread is inverted when the longer maturity yields less than the shorter one. The 10-year minus 2-year spread is +37bp, positive for 525 straight Treasury days; it was last inverted on September 5, 2024. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is +91bp, positive for 248 straight Treasury days; last inverted October 16, 2025. Since 1990, 10y−2y has closed inverted on 11.4% of Treasury days and 10y−3m on 12.2%.
| Spread | Oct 14 | 1 week ago | 1 month ago | 3 months ago | 1 year ago | 2026 low | Last inverted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y − 2y | +37bp | +51bp | +32bp | +42bp | +55bp | +20bp (Sep 21) | Sep 5, 2024 |
| 10y − 3m | +91bp | +106bp | +86bp | +72bp | +1bp | +30bp (Feb 27) | Oct 16, 2025 |
| 5y − 2y | +18bp | +26bp | +15bp | +13bp | +12bp | +4bp (Jun 18) | Dec 11, 2024 |
| 30y − 10y | +33bp | +39bp | +37bp | +53bp | +59bp | +29bp (Sep 23) | Jul 7, 2023 |
| 2y − 3m | +54bp | +55bp | +54bp | +30bp | −54bp | −29bp (Feb 27) | Mar 17, 2026 |
Q3 Every inversion since 1990
An episode starts with the first inverted close and ends with the last one; inverted runs separated by fewer than 63 positive Treasury days count as one episode. The next NBER recession start is listed for reference only: it is the date the National Bureau of Economic Research later assigned, and its appearance here is not a claim that one caused the other.
10y − 2y
| First inverted | Last inverted | Inverted days | Deepest close | Next NBER recession start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 1990 | Mar 29, 1990 | 16 | −14bp (Mar 20, 1990) | August 1990 (5 months after the first inverted close) |
| May 26, 1998 | Jul 27, 1998 | 27 | −7bp (Jun 25, 1998) | April 2001 (35 months after the first inverted close) |
| Feb 2, 2000 | Dec 28, 2000 | 227 | −52bp (Apr 7, 2000) | April 2001 (14 months after the first inverted close) |
| Dec 27, 2005 | Jun 5, 2007 | 238 | −19bp (Nov 15, 2006) | January 2008 (25 months after the first inverted close) |
| Aug 27, 2019 | Aug 29, 2019 | 3 | −4bp (Aug 27, 2019) | March 2020 (7 months after the first inverted close) |
| Apr 1, 2022 | Sep 5, 2024 | 541 | −108bp (Jul 3, 2023) | None as of this report |
10y − 3m
| First inverted | Last inverted | Inverted days | Deepest close | Next NBER recession start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 1998 | Oct 5, 1998 | 5 | −13bp (Sep 21, 1998) | April 2001 (31 months after the first inverted close) |
| Apr 7, 2000 | Feb 9, 2001 | 136 | −95bp (Jan 2, 2001) | April 2001 (12 months after the first inverted close) |
| Jan 17, 2006 | Mar 1, 2006 | 9 | −7bp (Feb 28, 2006) | January 2008 (24 months after the first inverted close) |
| Jul 17, 2006 | Aug 27, 2007 | 234 | −64bp (Feb 27, 2007) | January 2008 (18 months after the first inverted close) |
| Mar 22, 2019 | Oct 10, 2019 | 104 | −52bp (Aug 28, 2019) | March 2020 (12 months after the first inverted close) |
| Jan 31, 2020 | Mar 2, 2020 | 13 | −20bp (Feb 25, 2020) | March 2020 (2 months after the first inverted close) |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Oct 16, 2025 | 621 | −189bp (May 4, 2023) | None as of this report |
Q4 Did the short end or the long end move the spreads?
A spread changes by the long-maturity move minus the short-maturity move. Each row splits the change in the spread into those two pieces.
| Spread | Over | Spread change | Long end | Short end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y − 2y | 1 week | −14bp | 10-year −9bp | 2-year +5bp |
| 10y − 2y | 1 month | +5bp | 10-year +22bp | 2-year +17bp |
| 10y − 2y | 3 months | −5bp | 10-year +64bp | 2-year +69bp |
| 10y − 2y | 1 year | −18bp | 10-year +116bp | 2-year +134bp |
| 10y − 3m | 1 week | −15bp | 10-year −9bp | 3-month +6bp |
| 10y − 3m | 1 month | +5bp | 10-year +22bp | 3-month +17bp |
| 10y − 3m | 3 months | +19bp | 10-year +64bp | 3-month +45bp |
| 10y − 3m | 1 year | +90bp | 10-year +116bp | 3-month +26bp |
| 5y − 2y | 1 week | −8bp | 5-year −3bp | 2-year +5bp |
| 5y − 2y | 1 month | +3bp | 5-year +20bp | 2-year +17bp |
| 5y − 2y | 3 months | +5bp | 5-year +74bp | 2-year +69bp |
| 5y − 2y | 1 year | +6bp | 5-year +140bp | 2-year +134bp |
Q5 Where are bills against the Fed’s target range?
The Fed’s federal funds target range was 3.75–4.00% as of October 15 (FRED DFEDTARL / DFEDTARU). Treasury yields on October 14, and their distance from the top of that range:
| Maturity | Yield, Oct 14 | vs top of Fed range | vs bottom of Fed range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month | 4.11% | +11bp | +36bp |
| 3-month | 4.28% | +28bp | +53bp |
| 6-month | 4.37% | +37bp | +62bp |
| 1-year | 4.53% | +53bp | +78bp |
| 2-year | 4.82% | +82bp | +107bp |
Treasury’s bill yields are bond-equivalent yields on the par curve; the federal funds range is an overnight rate target. They are measured differently, so small gaps between them are not meaningful on their own.