Independent research. The data analysis on this page is Todd Hanley’s own and does not represent the views of United Direct Lending. It is not lending advice and is not tied to any loan program, product, or lending decision. Educational content only. Not a commitment to lend, a rate quote, or an offer of credit. Todd Hanley, RICP® | NMLS #1013665 | United Direct Lending NMLS #1749719 | Equal Housing Opportunity.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September; the 12-month rate rose to 3.7%
All items rose 0.6% seasonally adjusted. Over 12 months the index rose 3.7% (prior month 3.4%). Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over 12 months (prior 2.4%).
Q1 What did prices do in September?
Seasonally adjusted, all items rose 0.6% in September after +0.4% in August. Core rose 0.3% (prior +0.3%). Food was unchanged, energy rose 5.2%, shelter rose 0.4%.
| Component | Sep SA | Aug SA | 3-mo ann. | 6-mo ann. | 12-mo NSA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | +0.4% | +4.6% | +3.7% | +3.7% |
| All items less food and energy | +0.3% | +0.3% | +3.4% | +2.9% | +2.6% |
| Food | 0.0% | +0.1% | +1.0% | +2.2% | +2.5% |
| Food at home | −0.1% | 0.0% | −0.4% | +1.7% | +1.8% |
| Food away from home | +0.2% | +0.3% | +3.2% | +3.1% | +3.5% |
| Energy | +5.2% | +2.1% | +25.3% | +15.7% | +20.4% |
| Energy commodities | +9.3% | +4.2% | +49.8% | +27.4% | +35.3% |
| Gasoline (all types) | +9.1% | +3.9% | +47.0% | +26.0% | +34.2% |
| Energy services | +0.1% | −0.4% | −0.2% | +2.5% | +4.6% |
| Commodities less food and energy commodities | +0.3% | +0.1% | +2.2% | +0.8% | +0.7% |
| New vehicles | +0.2% | +0.3% | +2.1% | +0.2% | +0.6% |
| Used cars and trucks | +0.7% | +0.4% | +5.9% | +2.6% | −1.5% |
| Apparel | +0.3% | 0.0% | +1.7% | +1.6% | +3.4% |
| Medical care commodities | −0.7% | −0.2% | −5.9% | −5.3% | −3.3% |
| Services less energy services | +0.4% | +0.3% | +3.8% | +3.6% | +3.1% |
| Shelter | +0.4% | +0.3% | +3.2% | +3.7% | +3.2% |
| Rent of primary residence | +0.2% | +0.2% | +2.7% | +3.5% | +2.8% |
| Owners' equivalent rent of residences | +0.3% | +0.2% | +3.2% | +3.8% | +3.3% |
| Medical care services | +0.3% | −0.2% | +2.4% | +2.0% | +2.5% |
| Transportation services | +0.6% | +0.5% | +5.4% | +1.5% | +2.7% |
| Motor vehicle insurance | +0.1% | −0.8% | −3.8% | −8.7% | −5.0% |
Q2 What makes up the 3.7% 12-month rate?
Each piece’s contribution is its weight times its price change. They add to the 12-month change: services less energy services +1.90pp, energy +1.35pp, food +0.34pp, commodities less food and energy commodities +0.14pp. Sum +3.74pp vs the index’s +3.74%.
Shelter is 35.6% of the basket
Q3 Where does this sit in history?
At 3.7%, the all-items 12-month rate is the highest since May 2026. It is at or above the rate in 68% of the 1,336 months since January 1914 (COVID months Mar 2020–Jun 2021 left out of the ranking). Core at 2.6% is the highest since June 2026, at or above 44% of months since 1958.
Long-run averages of the 12-month rate
| Decade | All items avg | Low | High | Core avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1910s (partial) | 10.0% | -1.0% | 20.7% | — |
| 1920s | 0.1% | -15.8% | 23.7% | — |
| 1930s | -1.9% | -10.7% | 5.6% | — |
| 1940s | 5.7% | -2.9% | 19.7% | — |
| 1950s | 2.1% | -2.1% | 9.4% | 2.1% |
| 1960s | 2.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| 1970s | 7.1% | 2.7% | 13.3% | 6.5% |
| 1980s | 5.6% | 1.1% | 14.8% | 6.1% |
| 1990s | 3.0% | 1.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| 2000s | 2.6% | -2.1% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| 2010s | 1.8% | -0.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| 2020s (partial) | 3.9% | 0.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% |
Q4 How have the main pieces moved over five years?
Since September 2021, the 12-month rate for shelter ran from 3.0% to 8.2%; it is 3.2% now. Core goods are at 0.7%, food 2.5%, energy 20.4%.
Q5 Is the recent pace above or below the 12-month rate?
Annualized from seasonally adjusted indexes, core prices rose at 3.4% over the last 3 months and 2.9% over 6, both above the 2.6% 12-month rate. All items: 4.6% (3-mo), 3.7% (6-mo), 3.7% (12-mo).
Core CPI pace
Q6 Did BLS change any earlier numbers?
No. Unadjusted CPI is final when published and is never revised. All 177 seasonally adjusted values we had stored for the last five years (3 series: CUSR0000SA0L1E, CUSR0000SAH1, CUSR0000SASLE) match what BLS publishes today. BLS recalculates seasonal factors each February.