The Fortnight's Story
Two inflation prints, one day apart, and then Treasury has to sell paper into whatever they say. The Consumer Price Index lands Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 AM ET, the Producer Price Index follows Thursday morning, and the 10-year note is auctioned at 1:00 PM Wednesday — hours after the CPI number it has to bid against. Eight of this fortnight's fourteen releases, and five of the eight high-impact ones, are packed into the first four days.
The back half of the window changes subject entirely. After advance retail sales close the first week Friday, August 14, the calendar hands the second week to housing and to supply: Treasury's foreign holdings data Monday, August 17, housing starts and permits alongside pending home sales Tuesday, August 18, then a 20-year bond Wednesday and a 30-year reopening Thursday, August 20. Five auctions in eight sessions is a lot of duration to place, and the long end — where the 30-year sat at 5.19% and the 20-year at 5.20% on August 7 — is the part of the curve mortgage pricing actually follows.
At a Glance
9
Sun
10
Mon
11
Tue
Existing-Home Sales
3Y Note Auction
12
Wed · CPI Day
Consumer Price Index
10Y Note Auction
13
Thu · PPI + 30Y
Producer Price Index
30Y Bond Auction
Jobless Claims
14
Fri
Retail Sales
15
Sat
16
Sun
17
Mon
Foreign Holdings (TIC)
18
Tue
Housing Starts & Permits
Pending Home Sales
19
Wed
20Y Bond Auction
20
Thu
30Y Bond Reopening
Jobless Claims
21
Fri
22
Sat
— Three Themes To Watch —
What this calendar is really telling you
i.
Two Inflation Prints, One Day Apart
CPI Wednesday morning and PPI Thursday morning leave no session in between to digest the first before the second arrives. That compresses the whole inflation question into about twenty-six hours. For lock-versus-float it means a client who clears Wednesday is not clear of anything — PPI can either confirm what CPI said or contradict it, and the second read is the one that decides which version the market keeps.
ii.
Five Auctions in Eight Sessions
Treasury prices a 3-year Tuesday, August 11, a 10-year Wednesday, a 30-year Thursday, then comes back with a 20-year on August 19 and a 30-year reopening on August 20. The 10-year was at 4.65% on August 7, the 30-year at 5.19%, the 20-year at 5.20%. Two of those auctions land on the same afternoons as the inflation data, and that is where thin demand shows up fastest — weak bidding at the long end tends to drag mortgage pricing with it.
iii.
Housing Gets the Quiet Week
Existing-home sales open the window Tuesday, August 11, and housing starts, permits and pending home sales all land Tuesday, August 18 — after the inflation noise has cleared. Starts ran at 1.427 million annualized in June with permits at 1.374 million, so the supply pipeline is the thing to watch. None of it moves the bond market, but it is the data agents ask about, and this fortnight it gets a week with room to be heard.
Release-by-Release Detail
11
Aug 2026
Tuesday
Existing-Home Sales
Closed resale transactions at an annualized pace, along with months of supply and the median sale price. Published in the third-to-fourth week of the month on prior-month data. Reference month: July. The most recent published pace was 4.09 million homes annualized in June.
Why It Matters for Rates
The volume read on the resale market and the first release of this fortnight. Existing-home sales tell you whether buyers are transacting at current financing costs or waiting them out, and months of supply is what moves negotiating leverage in a given market. It sets the housing baseline a week before starts and pending sales fill in the rest.
Prev · Existing Sales
4.09M
EXHOSLUSM495S · June 2026
3-Year Note Auction
The front end of Treasury's refunding, and the first of three auctions in three consecutive sessions.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 3-year tracks policy expectations more directly than the long end, so where it prices is a live read on what the market thinks the Fed does next. It also sets the tone for the 10-year and 30-year that follow it Wednesday and Thursday, both of which price against fresh inflation data.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · Aug 11
12
CPI Day
Wednesday
Consumer Price Index
Headline and core CPI, plus shelter, services less energy services, and food — released about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The largest scheduled release of this fortnight. Core CPI and the shelter component are what the market actually trades, and shelter is the slowest-moving piece of the index, which is why a surprise there carries further than the headline does. A cool print gives the long end room to rally into the afternoon's 10-year auction; a hot one raises the odds of repricing the same morning. Anything floating into Wednesday is carrying concentrated risk.
Reference Month
Awaits
BLS · July 2026
10-Year Note Auction
The benchmark maturity, auctioned at 1:00 PM ET — hours after the CPI print lands. Current yield 4.65% as of August 7.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 10-year is the maturity mortgage pricing tracks most closely, and this one has to find buyers on the same day as the inflation number. Strong bidding after a cool CPI compounds the rally; weak bidding after a hot one is how a rough morning becomes a rough afternoon.
10-Yr Yield
4.65%
BC_10YEAR · Aug 7
13
PPI + 30Y
Thursday
Producer Price Index
Producer prices for final demand, headline and core — the cost pressure sitting upstream of consumer inflation, released one day after CPI. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The confirmation print, and it arrives with no session in between to digest CPI first. PPI catches pipeline costs before they reach the consumer, so it either backs up Wednesday's number or complicates it. Several PPI components also feed the core PCE calculation the Fed targets, which is why a divergence between the two inflation reports gets traded rather than ignored.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · July 2026
30-Year Bond Auction
The long end of the refunding, priced Thursday afternoon behind the PPI report. Current yield 5.19% as of August 7.
Why It Matters for Rates
The hardest paper to place and the maturity most sensitive to inflation expectations. Thirty-year demand is a direct read on whether investors will hold duration at these levels, and a weak long-bond auction tends to pull the rest of the curve with it — mortgage pricing included.
30-Yr Yield
5.19%
BC_30YEAR · Aug 7
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial claims for the week, sharing the 8:30 slot with the PPI report.
Why It Matters for Rates
Overshadowed on a morning like this one, but it still gets read alongside the inflation data. Claims have been running near 199,000, and a rising trend is the first place labor-market deterioration shows up between monthly jobs reports.
Last Print
199K
ICSA · Wk Aug 1
14
Aug 2026
Friday
Advance Retail Sales
Advance Monthly Retail Trade — total sales, sales excluding autos, the control group that feeds GDP, and e-commerce. Released about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The consumer-spending read that closes the first week. The control group is the line that matters, because it maps directly into GDP — a strong number says the economy is absorbing current rates fine, which is the argument against easing. Coming two days after CPI and PPI, it is the last chance in that stretch for the data to change the story.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
17
Aug 2026
Monday
Treasury International Capital — Foreign Holdings
The TIC data on foreign official and private holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, published roughly six weeks after the reference month. Reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
This is the demand side of the supply story running through the rest of the fortnight. Foreign holdings show whether overseas buyers are still absorbing Treasury issuance, and a sustained pullback by the largest holders is the kind of structural shift that pushes long-end yields — and mortgage rates — higher regardless of what the inflation data says.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · June 2026
18
Aug 2026
Tuesday
New Residential Construction — Housing Starts & Permits
Census's combined report on housing starts, building permits, units under construction, and completions, released about two and a half weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July. June starts ran at 1.427 million annualized with permits at 1.374 million.
Why It Matters for Rates
Permits are the forward-looking half of this release — they are the builder's decision to commit capital at today's financing costs, so they lead starts by a couple of months. For clients weighing new construction against resale, this is the report that says whether the pipeline is filling or draining, and a thinner pipeline is the backdrop behind builder incentives and rate buydowns.
Prev · Starts (SAAR)
1.427M
CENSUS_HSTARTS_TOTAL · June 2026
Pending Home Sales Index
Contracts signed but not yet closed, published in the fourth week of the month on prior-month data. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The leading indicator to the existing-home sales number that opened this window — pending contracts today become closed sales in roughly forty-five days. It is the earliest read on whether buyer demand is responding to where rates have settled, which makes it the most useful single number in this issue for pipeline planning.
Awaits
Awaits Release
NAR · July 2026
19
Aug 2026
Wednesday
20-Year Bond Auction
The 20-year maturity, auctioned Wednesday afternoon. Current yield 5.20% as of August 7.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 20-year is the least-loved point on the curve and reliably the softest auction of any month, which is exactly why it is worth watching — it shows stress at the long end before the 30-year does. A poor result here is an early warning for the 30-year reopening the next afternoon.
20-Yr Yield
5.20%
BC_20YEAR · Aug 7
20
Aug 2026
Thursday
30-Year Bond Auction (Reopening)
A reopening of the 30-year bond issued the week before — same coupon and maturity, additional size. Current yield 5.19% as of August 7.
Why It Matters for Rates
The second helping of long-duration supply in eight sessions, and the release that closes this window. A reopening tests whether the market wanted more of what it just bought; soft demand at the long end is where mortgage pricing feels Treasury supply most directly. This is the last scheduled event before the next issue picks up.
30-Yr Yield
5.19%
BC_30YEAR · Aug 7
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial claims for the week — the fastest read on layoffs, published every Thursday morning.
Why It Matters for Rates
The only labor data in this entire fortnight. With no jobs report in the window, claims carry more weight than usual as the market's read on whether hiring conditions are holding while it waits for the next payroll print.
Last Print
199K
ICSA · Wk Aug 1
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