The Fortnight's Story
Payrolls come first and the inflation print comes second. The Employment Situation report lands Friday, August 7 at 8:30 AM ET with the first read on July hiring — and then the market gets three sessions to sit with it before the Consumer Price Index arrives Wednesday, August 12. Two numbers, one week apart, with nothing in between large enough to change the subject.
The second week is where this calendar loads up. CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday morning, and Treasury selling 3-year, 10-year and 30-year paper across those same three afternoons — the 10-year prices at 1:00 PM Wednesday, hours after the CPI print it has to bid against, and the 30-year follows Thursday behind PPI. Advance retail sales close the window Friday, August 14. Eight of this fortnight's fifteen releases land in that final four-day stretch, and five of the seven high-impact ones.
At a Glance
2
Sun
3
Mon
Construction Spending
4
Tue
JOLTS
Trade Balance
Trade in Goods
NAR Metro Prices
5
Wed
6
Thu
Jobless Claims
7
Fri · Jobs Day
Employment Situation
8
Sat
9
Sun
10
Mon
11
Tue
Existing-Home Sales
3Y Note Auction
12
Wed · CPI Day
Consumer Price Index
10Y Note Auction
13
Thu · PPI + 30Y
Producer Price Index
30Y Bond Auction
Jobless Claims
14
Fri
Retail Sales
15
Sat
— Three Themes To Watch —
What this calendar is really telling you
i.
Two Deadlines, Three Sessions Apart
Friday, August 7 and Wednesday, August 12 are the two dates that matter, and only three trading sessions separate them. Payrolls sets the read on whether hiring is cooling; CPI decides whether the inflation side agrees. For lock-versus-float that is not one decision but two — clearing Friday morning does not get you clear of the window, because the inflation print is still sitting three days out.
ii.
Treasury Sells Duration Into the Inflation Data
The 3-year prices Tuesday, August 11, the 10-year at 1:00 PM Wednesday — hours after CPI — and the 30-year Thursday afternoon behind PPI. The 10-year sat at 4.75% and the 30-year at 5.27% as of July 31. Auctions that have to find buyers on the same day as a fresh inflation number are where thin demand shows up fastest, and the long end is what mortgage pricing actually tracks.
iii.
Housing Runs on Its Own Clock Underneath
Construction spending Monday, August 3, NAR's quarterly metro median prices Tuesday, August 4, and existing-home sales Tuesday, August 11. None of the three moves the bond market, but together they are the read on whether builders are still breaking ground and whether resale volume is holding at current financing costs. This is the data agents ask about, and it lands in a fortnight where the headlines will be about something else.
Release-by-Release Detail
3
Aug 2026
Monday
Construction Spending
Total value of construction put in place, split into residential and non-residential. Released the first business day of the month, running two months behind — reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
The first data point of the fortnight and the cleanest read on whether builders are still breaking ground at current financing costs. It moves nothing on the day, but a pullback in the residential line is the leading edge of tighter new-build supply — the backdrop behind every builder incentive and buydown clients keep hearing about.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · June 2026
4
Aug 2026
Tuesday
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover)
Openings, hires, and quits — the structural read on labor demand the Fed has cited at nearly every press conference. Data runs about two months prior. Reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
The labor warm-up three days before payrolls. Openings are the measure used to argue the labor market is loosening without breaking, so a continued slide supports the easing case. A jump higher makes Friday's payroll number carry even more weight than it already does.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · June 2026
International Trade in Goods and Services
The full trade balance — goods and services, exports and imports — released jointly by BEA and Census about five weeks after the reference month. Reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
Rarely a headline rate-mover on its own, but net exports feed straight into the next GDP revision. A wide miss here changes the growth math sitting underneath everything else in this window.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BEA · June 2026
International Trade (Goods)
The Census goods-only detail published in the same joint release — the merchandise balance behind the headline trade figure. Reference month: June.
Why It Matters for Rates
The goods detail is where tariff and supply-chain effects surface first. Background reading for rates, but it is the line that tells you whether import prices are still pushing on the inflation numbers CPI reports eight days later.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · June 2026
Metro Median Home Prices
Quarterly median single-family prices by metro area, published in February, May, August, and October. Reference period: Q2 2026.
Why It Matters for Rates
The most locally useful release of the fortnight. It moves nothing in the bond market, but it is the metro-level price data agents and buyers actually argue about, and it sets the equity picture behind every purchase and cash-out conversation this quarter.
Awaits
Awaits Release
NAR · Q2 2026
6
Aug 2026
Thursday
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial claims for the week — the fastest read on layoffs, landing the morning before the jobs report.
Why It Matters for Rates
Usually a quiet print, but the timing gives it extra weight: it is the last labor data the market sees before payrolls. A spike the day before the jobs report would shift positioning into Friday morning.
Last Print
197K
ICSA · Wk Jul 25
7
Jobs Day
Friday
Employment Situation — The Jobs Report
Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, U-6, average hourly earnings, and labor force participation — all at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The single largest scheduled release of this fortnight. Payrolls and average hourly earnings together tell the market whether hiring is cooling and whether wage pressure is still feeding the inflation the Fed is trying to finish off. Rate sheets can move quickly on this one and the direction is not something anyone gets to front-run, so anything floating into Friday morning is carrying real, concentrated risk. Whatever prints here also sets the bar CPI has to clear three sessions later.
Payrolls
Awaits
BLS · July 2026
11
Aug 2026
Tuesday
Existing-Home Sales
Closed resale transactions at an annualized pace, along with months of supply and the median sale price. Reference month: July. The most recent published pace was 4.09 million homes annualized in June.
Why It Matters for Rates
The volume read on the resale market. Existing-home sales are the clearest measure of whether buyers are transacting at current rates or waiting them out, and months of supply is what tells you which direction negotiating leverage is moving in a given market.
Prev · Existing Sales
4.09M
EXHOSLUSM495S · June 2026
3-Year Note Auction
The front end of Treasury's refunding, and the first of three auctions in three consecutive sessions.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 3-year tracks policy expectations more directly than the long end, so where it prices is a live read on what the market thinks the Fed does next. It also sets the tone for the 10-year and 30-year that follow it Wednesday and Thursday.
Awaits
Awaits Release
U.S. Treasury · Aug 11
12
CPI Day
Wednesday
Consumer Price Index
Headline and core CPI, plus shelter, services less energy services, and food — released about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The inflation half of this fortnight, and the print that decides whether Friday's jobs report gets to stand. Core CPI and the shelter component are what the market trades, and shelter is the slowest-moving piece of the index, which is why a surprise there carries further than the headline does. A cool print gives the long end room to rally into the afternoon's 10-year auction; a hot one raises the odds of repricing the same morning.
Reference Month
Awaits
BLS · July 2026
10-Year Note Auction
The benchmark maturity, auctioned at 1:00 PM ET — hours after the CPI print lands. Current yield 4.75% as of July 31.
Why It Matters for Rates
The 10-year is the maturity mortgage pricing tracks most closely, and this one has to find buyers on the same day as the inflation number. Strong bidding after a cool CPI compounds the rally; weak bidding after a hot one is how a rough morning becomes a rough afternoon.
10-Yr Yield
4.75%
BC_10YEAR · Jul 31
13
PPI + 30Y
Thursday
Producer Price Index
Producer prices for final demand, headline and core — the cost pressure sitting upstream of consumer inflation, released one day after CPI. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The confirmation print. PPI catches pipeline costs before they reach the consumer, so it either backs up what CPI said Wednesday or complicates it. Several PPI components also feed the core PCE calculation the Fed targets, which is why a divergence between the two inflation reports gets traded rather than ignored.
Awaits
Awaits Release
BLS · July 2026
30-Year Bond Auction
The long end of the refunding, priced Thursday afternoon behind the PPI report. Current yield 5.27% as of July 31.
Why It Matters for Rates
The hardest paper to place and the maturity most sensitive to inflation expectations. Thirty-year demand is a direct read on whether investors will hold duration at these levels, and a weak long-bond auction tends to pull the rest of the curve with it — mortgage pricing included.
30-Yr Yield
5.27%
BC_30YEAR · Jul 31
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial claims for the week, sharing the 8:30 slot with the PPI report.
Why It Matters for Rates
Overshadowed on a morning like this one, but it still gets read alongside the inflation data. A rising trend in claims is the first place labor-market deterioration shows up between monthly jobs reports.
Last Print
197K
ICSA · Wk Jul 25
14
Aug 2026
Friday
Advance Retail Sales
Advance Monthly Retail Trade — total sales, sales excluding autos, the control group that feeds GDP, and e-commerce. Released about two weeks after the reference month. Reference month: July.
Why It Matters for Rates
The consumer-spending read that closes the fortnight. The control group is the line that matters, because it maps directly into GDP — a strong number says the economy is absorbing current rates fine, which is the argument against easing. After two inflation prints and three auctions, this is the last chance in the window for the data to change the story.
Awaits
Awaits Release
Census · July 2026
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